The AL Central race continues on Thursday. With their win on Wednesday night, the Minnesota Twins moved to four games back of the Cleveland Guardians and remain within striking distance of the division lead. Who would have thought? Let’s find out if the Twins will continue their climb towards the top, or if the Guardians can extend their lead.
Cleveland sits as a -135 moneyline favorite on the DraftKings Sportsbook. A Twins upset is priced at +112, and the over/under is set at 7.5 runs. Let’s get into a preview, prediction, and pick for this contest.
Twins vs. Guardians prediction, preview
Minnesota is quietly one of the most compelling stories of the season. After a brutal 2025 season, the expectation was that the rebuild was on. But this team won’t go quietly.
The key has been a healthy Byron Buxton, which is a rare sight indeed; the Twins legend leads the team in home runs (25) and bWAR (3.3). But it’s not just a one-man show in the lineup: Ryan Jeffers has been one of their breakout stars, posting a .950 OPS on the year. Trevor Larnach is having a career year at the plate with his .844 OPS and dramatically improved bat-to-ball skills. Kody Clemens has graduated from utility player to a strong starter, holding a .780 OPS while playing all over the diamond. The young Brooks Lee has provided a surprising amount of power from the left side of the infield and bashed his 15th homer of the season on Wednesday. The lineup went from a weakness on paper to a strength — after finishing 18th in wRC+ last year, Minnesota is all the way up to eighth this season.
Another surprise has been the starting rotation, and Thursday’s starter, Taj Bradley, has been a significant part of that equation. Acquired from the Rays for Griffin Jax at last year’s trade deadline, Bradley had an awfully rough time, posting a 6.61 ERA in Minnesota. This year, he’s a different pitcher entirely. He’s striking out more batters while giving up fewer hits and home runs, and it adds up to a 3.85 ERA over 107.2 innings. Bradley and Twins ace Joe Ryan combine to give them a strong 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation.
Minnesota’s bullpen has been a sore spot, ranking 27th in ERA, which is no surprise after its dismantling at the 2025 deadline. However, some strong young arms are emerging. Yoendrys Gómez has seized the closer role, and the 26-year-old has provided them stability at the back. Rookie Andrew Morris has been a master of avoiding hard contact, and No. 9 prospect Kendry Rojas has come out firing as their lefty specialist. It’s certainly something for manager Derek Shelton to build on.
Cleveland just keeps on chugging. They’re on pace to make it three playoff appearances in as many tries under manager Stephen Vogt, and it’s all about the pitching. All five of their starters are between 25 and 27 years old, and the results have been impressive; the rotation holds a collective xFIP of 3.89, seventh-best in the majors. Gavin Williams, Thursday’s starter, has been a major asset. He’s cut down on his walk issues after leading the majors in walks allowed last season, while boosting his strikeout numbers. Though he’s not a true ace, he’s a strong link in the chain.
The bullpen has been strong as well, ranking ninth in the league in xFIP. The steadying presence has been Cade Smith, who has become one of the best closers in the game. Though injuries have made things difficult, they’re getting strong setup work from Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowski, Colin Holderman, and Tim Herrin. It’s a great group for Vogt to work with.
The offense, as usual, has been a sore spot. Cleveland is 22nd in wRC+ as a group, and rookie Chase DeLauter has been the only true positive at the plate this year. Fortunately, José Ramírez is back from a long injury layoff and looking to boost their offense as he usually does. Unsurprisingly, Cleveland remains one of the strongest defensive teams in baseball, and they can steal bags with the best of them. Guards Ball is eternal.
So much of this performance comes down to the starting pitching. Williams has to bring his best stuff to contain this strong Twins lineup, and Bradley has to avoid handing the speedy Guardians free baserunners. The Guardians having a better bullpen to lean on helps to even out the disparity in their lineups, but on paper, it seems like an awfully equal contest.
Twins vs. Guardians pick, best bet
I can’t ignore the value of the Twins here. They’re swinging sweet bats, and Bradley has been in good form all season long. They know how to deal with Guards Ball better than most other teams, and I expect them to secure another road upset to creep closer toward a playoff spot.
