Winning one NFL MVP award, let alone two, is no easy task. That’s the goal for Josh Allen heading into the 2026-27 regular season. After bringing home the award two years ago, Buffalo’s quarterback is hoping to add another trophy to his already impressive collection.
Still, there’s no doubt that the competition will be fierce. In a league overflowing with elite signal callers, and several high-end skill position players, Allen will need to vault himself above the rest. Let’s break down the superstar’s chances at winning another MVP in 2026, while comparing his odds on DraftKings Sportsbook to other contenders.
Can Josh Allen win 2026 NFL MVP?
Make no mistake: Allen could have easily earned a second consecutive MVP last season. Over 17 games, the four-time Pro-Bowler threw for 3,668 yards, 25 touchdowns and ten interceptions along with a 69.3% completion percentage. In addition, he scrambled for 579 yards and 14 scores on the ground. That level of all-around production is extremely rare, even with the kind of athletes lining up at quarterback in the modern era. Unsurprisingly, he finished third in MVP voting at the end of the season.
In many ways, this year could prove more difficult for Allen. After all, the Bills must contend with the 14th-hardest schedule in football based off of last season’s win percentages. That doesn’t even tell the whole story; clubs such as the Chiefs, Lions and Ravens will likely bounce back following disappointing campaigns. Buffalo notched a 12-5 record with an easier schedule in 2025. As most NFL fans are aware of, the MVP award almost always goes to the best player on an elite team. For Allen to make that happen this season, the Bills will need to finish with a top two or three record in the AFC. Certainly not impossible, but no guarantee either.
With that being said, competition also presents opportunity. Buffalo comes into this season with seven prime time games on the calendar, with the potential for more due to flex scheduling. That includes matchups with the Chiefs and Broncos on Thanksgiving and Christmas, respectively. Casual fans will get more than enough chances to see Allen in action this season. Although voters are loathe to admit it, public perception plays a major role in award races. If JA17 out-duels names such as Jackson, Mahomes, Maye and Stafford, he’ll place himself into MVP pole position.
That’s without getting into the construction of this season’s Bills roster. Unlike in years past, the front office made acquiring proven talent at wide receiver a priority. With respect to Khalil Shakir, Buffalo was missing a true WR1 after Stefon Diggs’ departure. Fans are hoping that former Bears standout D.J. Moore can fill that void. Despite a down season with Chicago last season, the veteran has notched four different 1,000-yard campaigns, often with less than stellar quarterback play. As the undisputed number one on an offense with Allen under center, he should feast. That’s a two-way street as well; the quarterback’s numbers should benefit from one of the NFL’s better yards after catch specialists.
There’s also something I’ll refer to as the ‘LeBron James effect’ that could work in Allen’s favor. For over 15 years, James was widely considered the NBA’s best player, even if that didn’t always manifest itself in MVP voting. For the sake of parity, voters often went with lesser talents that enjoyed career years, such as Derrick Rose in 2011 and James Harden in 2018. Allen isn’t quite at LBJ’s level of dominance, and he has no shortage of competition amongst other quarterbacks. Still, it’s a very reasonable stance to call him football’s best player right now. In some ways, it would feel wrong if the future Hall of Famer’s career ended with just one MVP award.
Josh Allen’s 2026 NFL MVP competition
This bet really feels like it comes down to Buffalo’s regular season record, considering the lack of standout quarterback play in the NFC. Briefly, let’s dive into why some of the league’s other elite signal callers could come up short:
- Lamar Jackson (+800) is in a similar position to Patrick Mahomes, albeit without the Super Bowls. A two-time MVP winner, he and Allen have already had their fair share of close finishes when it comes to voting. Losing long time head coach John Harbaugh could shake up this offense as well, for better or worse. Still, it’s difficult to put too much faith in Baltimore following a handful of disappointing seasons. Expect LJ to come out firing, but a third MVP would be almost unprecedented.
- Joe Burrow (+850) is a wild card worth watching here; the former number one overall pick has never taken home this award. If he stays healthy, and Cincinnati wins the AFC North, he’ll be a surefire contender. Unfortunately, that’s no guarantee. The LSU alum has played in just 25 of a potential 41 regular season games over the past three seasons. To boot, wins are hard to come by in his division. There’s high upside and a low floor for Burrow when it comes to these odds.
- Patrick Mahomes (+1000) is the antithesis of Allen; fans and voters alike are already sick of seeing him win everything. The 30-year-old has already taken home two MVP awards in addition to three Super Bowl trophies. After a nightmarish 2025 season, he’s also making his return from a season-ending knee injury. I’d expect Kansas City to remerge as a title contender, but it would take a massive statistical output for Mahomes to win this one.
- Matthew Stafford (+1400) and Drake Maye (+1100) finished first and second respectively in last season’s MVP voting. The former, at 38 years old, is unlikely to repeat. Los Angeles’ reputation as a bonafide superteam makes it more difficult to justify back to back wins here. As for Maye, the Patriots benefitted from one of the easiest regular season schedules in recent memory. The defending AFC champions should remain a playoff caliber club, but a regression to the mean in terms of wins wouldn’t come as a surprise.
- Other names, such as Justin Herbert (+1000), Dak Prescott (+1300) and Caleb Williams (+1300) are worth watching. However, none have proven they are on Allen’s level under center. In addition, the Bills wield a superior supporting cast on paper.
In short, there’s a reason why Allen (+550) has the most favorable odds on DraftKings Sportsbook to win this award. When looking over his fellow contenders, the Wyoming alum has the fewest major question marks heading into this season. A tricky schedule also presents some upside as well. Even at +550, bettors should feel confident backing Buffalo’s face of the franchise going forward.
