It’s almost always established superstars that win the NFL MVP, and that makes sense; the MVP award usually goes to a quarterback, and football is such a physically and mentally demanding sport that high-level experience is usually a prerequisite to success, especially at its most critical position.
However, relative to their contracts, arguably the most important players are young stars who come into the league ready to perform at a high level, even if they’re not fully superstars. In 2024, Jayden Daniels led the Washington Commanders to the NFC Championship Game while counting for just $6.9 million against the Commanders’ salary cap. He was named Offensive Rookie of the Year in the process while finishing seventh in MVP voting.
This season, a new crop of highly-touted youngsters will begin their NFL careers, hoping to follow in Daniels’ and Tetairoa McMillan’s footsteps as Offensive Rookie of the Year winners.
2026 NFL OROY Odds
This award typically goes to quarterbacks, as five of the last 10 winners of the award have played the position, but it’s actually a running back, the Arizona Cardinals’ Jeremiyah Love, who has emerged as a +400 favorite. First overall pick Fernando Mendoza, a Las Vegas Raiders quarterback, follows closely behind, with a pair of wide receivers (the Tennessee Titans’ Carnell Tate and the New Orleans Saints’ Jordyn Tyson) owning the next-shortest odds. Seattle Seahawks running back Jadarian Price and Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Makai Lemon are the only other players with better than 10/1 odds.
Looking at each team’s depth chart, Love’s status as the favorite makes sense. Although no running back has won the award since Saquon Barkley in 2018, Love should be his team’s clear workhorse back, since Tyler Allgeier has primarily served as a change-of-pace option throughout his career and both James Conner and Trey Benson are recovering from season-ending leg injuries. He was college football’s highest-graded running back last season, ranking second among 416 qualified backs by running grade and 63rd among 440 qualified backs by receiving grade, so he should be a three-down option in new Cardinals coach Mike LaFleur’s offense. Meanwhile, Mendoza will likely take over the starting role eventually, but the Raiders plan for him to begin the season as Kirk Cousins’ backup.
Tate and Tyson could easily fall into the McMillan mold. McMillan became the first Carolina rookie receiver to reach the 1,000-yard threshold since Kelvin Benjamin in 2014, and like the Panthers, who had a young, highly-touted quarterback ready to make an early-career leap in Bryce Young, both the Titans and Saints have second-year quarterbacks in Cam Ward and Tyler Shough. Despite some general struggles, Ward was pretty sharp on deep passes, and Tate was one of the best deep threats in college football, managing a perfect 99.9 grade on such plays. Tyson was pretty good from all three zones, and Shough, like Ward, particularly excelled on throws of 10 or more air yards. Neither team has a clearly better receiver on its roster, though Tate is slightly more likely to emerge as the top option ahead of Wan’Dale Robinson than Tyson is ahead of Chris Olave.
Among longer shots, I like Omar Cooper Jr. (+4000). Cooper should immediately step into a starting role with the New York Jets, who have little wide receiver depth, and Garrett Wilson played just seven games last season because of injury. New York also has Adonai Mitchell, who’s more theory than substance at this point in his career and ranked just 94th among 128 qualified targets by receiving grade last season. Geno Smith isn’t the long-term solution at quarterback, but Cooper is a well-rounded receiver who does most of his damage between the numbers and Smith likes to target that zone. Supported by a slightly less atrocious offensive line than he was last season in Las Vegas, Smith should be a capable stop-gap, even if nothing else.
