Coors Field is built for run creation — the Washington Nationals and Colorado Rockies have put that on display over the last couple of days. Through the first two games of this series, there have been a combined 25 runs scored between these clubs. This afternoon, they close out the three-game set at 3:10 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for today’s Nationals vs. Rockies game, courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nationals vs. Rockies prediction, preview
This series began Monday night with a 7-3 win for the Nats powered by a 3-for-5 outing from Curtis Mead, a three-run homer by Andres Chaparro and another home run by CJ Abrams. However, the Rockies got their lick back last night with an 8-7 victory thanks to 12 hits, with a 3-for-5 game from Cole Carigg and homers from Hunter Goodman and Mickey Moniak. You want offense? You got it.
Now, Washington is right back at .500 with a 51-51 record and a +18 run differential, also going 3-2 since the All-Star break. On the other side, Colorado has moved to 41-62 record with a -93 differential, going 2-3 coming out of the break.
RHP Cade Cavalli (6-4) gets the start for the Nationals here. He’s produced a quality season with a 3.78 ERA, and while the 1.31 WHIP is a little bit high, he brings 119 strikeouts with a 26.2% K% across his 104.2 IP. 27-year-old appears to have cemented a place as a legitimate MLB starter with above-average fastball velocity and some solid underlying metrics. The bullpen does remain an issue though, slotting in 28th in ERA at 5.13 with a 1.48 WHIP and an 8.5% K-BB%. It’s been a difficult unit to trust all season long.
The home team trots out a rookie RHP as former No. 10 pick Gabriel Hughes (0-1) takes the mound. He’s only thrown 14.1 innings over three appearances (two starts), but brings a 3.14 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and 14 strikeouts. In those two starts, he went 11.1 innings with nine hits and four walks allowed, giving up five earned runs with 13 total strikeouts. Early results are largely encouraging, to say the least. The Rockies’ bullpen ranks 26th in ERA with a 4.87 mark though, plus a 1.46 WHIP and a 10.6% K-BB%.
As we put it yesterday, the Nationals remain the highest-scoring club in the MLB with 5.48 runs per game on the third-best OPS (.768), and they have 14 combined runs over two games of this series. The power bats are very impressive, pacing the entire league in ISO (.190) and homers (149). Against right-handers in particular, they’re slashing .245/.319/.440 for a .759 OPS, still impressive production despite being the worse of the hitters’ splits. The Rockies are also a very competent offense themselves, though. They rank seventh in runs per game (4.81), fifth in OPS (.747), ninth in ISO (.166) and 17th in homers (118). In the split against right-handers, they slash .255/.328/.437 for an elevated .765 OPS.
Nationals vs. Rockies pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Nationals as -144 Moneyline favorites on the road today with the Rockies trailing as +119 underdogs for a win at home. The run total comes in at 11.5 combined runs.
It’s expected to be 90 degrees Fahrenheit and sunny at Coors this afternoon for first pitch, so we’re looking at some pretty hitter-friendly weather at the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the league. After the 25 combined runs for these two clubs over the first two games of the series, this does look like a chance to bet on another high output on the scoreboard. Over 7.5 extra base hits feels like a really solid pick, as does over 2.5 home runs as well. We’ve seen four combined homers in each of the games so far, but given the fact that one of these pitchers has kept scoring down pretty well at the MLB level, it might be best to avoid the over on the game total itself for now.
However, I do think it’s noteworthy that the Rockies’ rookie starter has just three MLB appearances under his belt and produced an ERA of 5.00 or higher in both of his Triple-A campaigns. That includes a 5.31 ERA in nine games with Albuquerque this year, even despite a respectable 1.28 WHIP at that level. Against the most productive offense in baseball, he may have a tough time today, and the Colorado bullpen isn’t very good behind him. That means we’re going with the team total of over 6.5 runs for Washington.
