The Phoenix Mercury and the Los Angeles Sparks are not having a good time. Both teams are solidly out of the playoff picture, and unless things pick up soon, they have to reckon with a lost season. With the All-Star break on the horizon, it’s a crucial game for two teams that may be forced to make some tough decisions if things don’t perk up.
The Sparks enter as 2.5-point home favorites with -136 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mercury are +113 underdogs with the game total set at 178.5 points. Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Mercury-Sparks matchup.
Mercury at Sparks Prediction, Preview
It’s all coming apart at the seams for the Mercury. After a brutal start to the season, they picked things up, winning four out of five games to move to 8-13 and within striking distance of a playoff spot. Then they dropped five in a row, all but killing their playoff chances. That included a devastating 48-point loss to the Aces, a rematch of last year’s WNBA Finals, plus losses to the lowly Sun and Sky. Not what you want to see.
The issue hasn’t been the stars. Alyssa Thomas isn’t the defensive force she used to be, but she’s still a nightly triple-double threat who organizes the offense at a high level. Kahleah Copper is healthy and hooping, flirting with a career high in PPG. DeWanna Bonner isn’t quite a star anymore, but still gives them good minutes. The issue here is depth; head coach Nate Tibbetts is struggling to make much out of this bench and the team can’t find an identity. Both the defense and offense have taken significant steps back since last season. With the campaign all but lost and the roster exceptionally old, the Mercury could make some real noise at the trade deadline if they choose to sell.
At 10-15, the Sparks are three games back of the eighth seed in the playoffs and are gearing up for a difficult stretch run. Defense has been an issue all season long and won’t be fixed anytime soon. Their best hope is to score and score and score to make up for that, but it’s a tough task without Kelsey Plum. Over their four-game losing streak, they’ve surrendered 90+ points in all four games, but scored 90+ just once. It’s a heavy burden on Nneka Ogwumike, Dearica Hamby, and Erica Wheeler to keep things going. At their respective ages, it’s hard to keep up with the pace of play that the Sparks need to survive.
For these teams, it’s a question of the frontcourts for me. Can Alyssa Thomas defend Nneka and Dearica sufficiently? On the other end of the floor, will AT’s post play be able to break down this Sparks defense? Kah is a definite pressure point here; Los Angeles’ point-of-attack defense is amongst the worst in the league, and she will have open shots when she wants them. If Copper can knock them down, it might be a long night for LA.
Now that we know these teams a bit better, who is going to pull out the win, and how should we bet this game?
Mercury at Sparks Pick, Best Bet
It’s very difficult to trust the Sparks without Plum. By far their most important offensive player, Plum’s absence has left their creation adrift. Without that steadying force, they’re not keeping pace with the leaky defense. Phoenix isn’t exactly flush with offensive talent, but this Sparks defense makes everyone look like world-beaters. I expect the Mercury to do enough offensively to stay ahead of LA.
