A heavyweight matchup in the National League rubber match will be taking place today as the Philadelphia Phillies match up with the Los Angeles Dodgers. These teams each rank in the top four in odds to win the National League on DraftKings Sportsbook, and there are still some lingering feelings from the Dodgers eliminating the Phillies in last year’s playoffs. The Phillies opened up the series with a 10-7 win on Monday night, but the Dodgers bounced back with a thrilling 2-1 win yesterday. Aaron Nola and Eric Lauer will take the ball for their respective squads tonight.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s matchup, the Dodgers enter as narrow -120 favorites and hold +129 odds of winning on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Phillies hold +100 odds of getting the outright victory, with the run total set at 9.5.
Phillies vs. Dodgers prediction, preview
It has been a turbulent season for the Philadelphia Phillies, who have equal sample sizes of encouraging and frustrating results. They started the year 9-19, leading to the firing of Rob Thomson and a spark sent across the organization. Philadelphia has scrapped out of their self-created hole to move to 56-46 on the season and sit three games behind the Atlanta Braves for the top spot in the NL East. On the season overall, the Phillies have gone 40-62 to the run line, and the game total is 42-55-5 to the over/under.
Aaron Nola will take the ball for the Phillies tonight. The 33-year-old enters with a 5.68 ERA, a 1.447 WHIP, a 3-7 record, and has allowed 114 hits and 23 home runs while striking out 108 across his 103.0 innings of work. Nola has not faced the Dodgers yet this season but has faced the expected starting lineup in 237 at-bats in his career. Los Angeles is slashing .228/.277/.380 in these chances with seven home runs and 34 RBIs allowed.
The Phillies offense was a driving reason for the lack of results in the early stages of the season, but they have taken some steps in the right direction. Philadelphia is collectively slashing .236/.303/.402 with a .705 OPS on the year. Kyle Schwarber leads the MLB with 33 home runs and adds 61 RBI. Bryce Harper is next up with 21 home runs and 60 RBIs, while Brandon Marsh has had a breakout All-Star season with 16 home runs, 47 RBIs, and a .290 batting average. Trea Turner has battled through some issues in the field, as he is tied for an MLB-worst 15 errors, but has 100 hits, 14 home runs, and 40 RBI at the plate. Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, and J.T. Realmuto comprise the majority of the rest of the production. As a team, the Phillies rank 18th in hits, fourth in home runs, 18th in runs, and fifth in strikeouts.
The Dodgers are coming off back-to-back World Series championships and hold an MLB-best 64-38 record on the season. Los Angeles became the first defending champion to take the best record into the All-Star break since 2010. They largely hit the ground running this season and have maintained their place as one of the premier title threats. On the season overall, the Dodgers have gone 45-57 against the spread, and the game total is 47-55 to the over/under.
Eric Lauer will get the start for the Dodgers tonight. The 31-year-old started his season with the Toronto Blue Jays, and this will be his eighth appearance with Los Angeles. On the season overall, Lauer is posting a 4.81 ERA, a 1.278 WHIP, a 4-5 overall record, and has allowed 71 hits and 18 home runs while striking out 47. Looking just at his 40.1 innings pitched with the Dodgers, Lauer holds a 3.12 ERA, a 1.091 WHIP, and a 3-0 record while striking out 21, allowing 33 hits and seven home runs. He has faced off with this Phillies lineup in 67 at-bats in his career and limited them to slash lines of .194/.250/.373 with a .623 OPS.
The Dodgers offense arrives with collective slash lines of .260/.341/.430 with a .770 OPS. Shohei Ohtani boasts a team-high 22 home runs along with 60 RBI and 102 total hits on the year. Freddie Freeman has tallied a team-leading 106 hits, along with 15 home runs and 51 RBI. Andy Pages is the lone other player with triple-digit hits at 104 on the season, along with 17 home runs and a team-leading 68 RBI. Kyle Tucker, Max Muncy, Mookie Betts, and Teoscar Hernandez also play key roles in the lineup. As a team, Los Angeles ranks third in hits, third in runs, fifth in home runs, and 24th in strikeouts.
Phillies vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
Both of these organizations lean on their starting pitching staff as a clear foundation, but each will be looking towards one of the weaker areas of these options today. My lean is toward the Dodgers putting up runs at a rate on Aaron Nola that the Phillies cannot overcome and covering the -1.5 run line. However, my best bet for this matchup is the game total to go over 9.5.
The bigger optimists would point toward Nola turning a corner in recent starts. After posting a 6.08 ERA across his first 17 starts, he has had three consecutive outings with three or fewer earned runs allowed. But this is a low bar for praise considering what has been seen from Nola in his career. He also never got it right last year, finishing with a 6.01 ERA on the season. The LSU product has allowed two or more earned runs in 18 of his 20 starts this year, three or more in 13 of the 20, and this is among the most dangerous lineups in baseball. Concerns should be further heightened considering the Phillies’ bullpen’s recent struggles, as Nola has only thrown more than 6.0 innings twice all year.
On the other side of the pitching matchup, Eric Lauer can be exploited as well. It is true that he has pitched much better since joining the Dodgers, but he still has seven home runs in seven games pitched and has allowed three earned runs in three of his past four starts. He has only escaped one outing without allowing an earned run this season, which came in relief, and has conceded 2+ earned runs in 12 of his 14 starts.
These teams exploded for 17 combined earned runs in the series opener, in which both sides had it going at the plate. It was a 2-1 result yesterday, with both Justin Wrobleski and Zack Wheeler pitching past the sixth inning and having great success. With a significant drop-off in pitching quality from yesterday’s matchup, expect both sides to put up runs at a high rate and record over 9.5 runs in this hitter-friendly park. Count on home runs being a factor for both sides and for the winning team to need to score 6+ en route to a high-scoring battle tonight.
Best bet: Game Total Over 9.5 (-107)
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