We’ve got an itty-bitty, teeny-weeny three-game slate for Thursday’s MLB action.
Let’s find some studs and values for your MLB DFS lineups on DraftKings. This article was written before lineups were announced.
Make your DraftKings MLB DFS picks here: MLB $80K Relay Throw [$20K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins ($8,700) — Especially on a small slate, I’m thinking most will pay up for Chris Sale. Rightfully so, as he’s been exceptional this season. But I have a little trepidation because the Padres have been humming on offense recently, especially against left-handed pitching. Therefore, I’m going down to save a few thousand in hopes that Williams can come close to the production of Sale.
If Sale gets blown up, even better! Williams is not on the level of Sale, but he’s been no slouch either, posting a 3.86 FIP and a 22.3% K-BB%. The big bugaboo has been the 20 home runs allowed in 119.1 innings. The average exit velocity against is 91 mph with a 12% barrel rate. That said, both the FIPs and HR/9 are lower at home, which is where Thursday’s contest will be held. Over the last two games, Williams put up 21.3 and 34.8 FPTS. On the season, he’s gone over 30 FPTS five times with a high of 41.6 FPTS.
Value
Shane Bieber, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays ($6,600) — The season-long numbers are gross for Bieber, as the FIP is 6.86 with a 6.5% K-BB%. He’s allowed seven home runs in 23.2 innings with a 91.7 mph average exit velocity and a 11.7% barrel rate. He finished with 11 or fewer FPTS in his first four starts, with two of those in the negatives. But, but, but….in the most recent outing, Bieber struck out six over six scoreless frames — good for 26.5 FPTS. Now, Tampa Bay strikes out at the lowest rate and is top 10 in both wOBA and wRC+, so the matchup isn’t great. That said, he’s cheap and could be turning a corner.
INFIELD
Stud
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres ($5,400) — Olson has 26 home runs, 67 runs, and 59 RBIs in 439 plate appearances. Against right-handed pitching, he has posted a 144 wRC+ and a .300 ISO. The average exit velocity is 92.6 mph with a 13.9% barrel rate and 74.9 mph bat speed. Translation: Olson mashes. Now he gets to face Griffin Canning, who has a 6.07 FIP and an 8.2% K-BB% against lefties.
Value
Jim Jarvis, Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres ($2,800) — Yup, we’re stacking against Canning. The rookie, Jarvis, has played well since getting called back up on July 2. He’s slashing .292/.333/.458 with a 19.2% strikeout rate and .167 ISO. The batting average has been fueled by a .351 BABIP, and the average exit velocity is only 88 mph, but he’s produced fantasy goodies in all but four games with three double-digit FPTS outings, including a high of 24 FPTS.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres ($4,800) — Something, something about Canning. Harris is slashing .301/.330/.506 with a 19.7% strikeout rate and a .205 ISO. He has 18 home runs, 49 runs, 59 RBIs, and six stolen bases in 376 plate appearances. The average exit velocity is 91.4 mph, the barrel rate is 12.3%, and the bat speed is 74.8 mph. Against right-handed pitching, Harris has posted a 132 wRC+ and a .216 ISO.
Value
Petey Halpin, Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins ($2,100) — The Guardians could be getting back Angel Martinez and Jose Ramirez soon, so that could affect the playing time for Halpin. Halpin has produced at least two FPTS in six straight outings, including three with double-digit FPTS and a high of 37 FPTS. He’s posted a .149 ISO and a 28.4 ft/sec sprint speed, the latter of which ranks in the 78th percentile. While Halpin’s .216 average and 26.3% strikeout rate are inspiring, he’s cheap and has been producing some fantasy goodies.
