Late July has turned the daily hitting board strange. Several established stars have gone quiet, while catchers, secondary bats, and overlooked lineup pieces are carrying the league’s loudest contact. Wednesday’s slate reflects that shift, with the strongest opportunities spread across hot hitters, suppressed superstars, and a handful of pitchers losing both command and contact quality.
The five 2+ total bases selections below combine current damage with favorable pitch shapes, strong lineup positions, and multiple ways to cash. Some can finish the bet with one barrel. Others bring enough contact volume to get there through two hits, especially against starters allowing elevated launch angles, declining strikeout rates, and damaging expected production.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out props and predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Best MLB player prop bets today
| Player prop pick | Odds | Why I like it |
|---|---|---|
| Shea Langeliers 2+ total bases | +110 | Merrill Kelly’s 7.55 xERA, .406 xwOBA, .577 xSLG, 44.6% hard-contact rate, 13.8% barrels, and 14.4% strikeout rate create the slate’s cleanest attack point for Langeliers, whose .316/.435/.737 last-seven line, 91.9 mph EV, 45.1% hard contact, 15% barrels, and .368/.395/.453/.507 xwOBAs against four-seamers, sinkers, cutters, and curves supply both one-swing and multi-hit routes to 2+ total bases. |
| Ben Rice 2+ total bases | -110 | Batting second at Yankee Stadium places Rice’s .281/.372/.594 line, 29 homers, 92.3 mph EV, 48.5% hard-hit rate, 15.4% barrels, .386 xwOBA, and .530 xSLG directly against Keller’s 5.14 ERA, 5.38 xERA, .353 xwOBA, .454 xSLG, and 17.4% strikeout rate, with current Yankees already producing a .359 xwOBA, .439 xSLG, and 91.8 mph EV in the matchup. |
| Randy Arozarena 2+ total bases | +135 | Nearly 90% of Singer’s arsenal consists of sinkers, sliders, and sweepers, yet that concentrated mix has produced a .348 xwOBA, .464 xSLG, 90.8 mph EV, 10.1% barrels, and 56.7% air contact, leaving Arozarena’s 91.3 mph EV, .352 xwOBA, 37.6% sweet-spot rate, and improved 21.4% strikeout rate positioned to capitalize upon a matchup where Seattle owns a .369 xwOBA and .519 xSLG. |
| Dillon Dingler 2+ total bases | +130 | Rea throws his four-seamer 42.6% of the time and has allowed a .355 xwOBA, 89.6 mph EV, 40.2% hard contact, and 10% barrels overall, an inviting shape for Dingler’s .435 xwOBA, .648 xSLG, and 51.9% hard-hit rate against four-seamers to support a season line featuring 22 homers, 65 RBI, an .872 OPS, and a .373 xwOBA. |
| Shohei Ohtani 2+ total bases | -115 | Few hitters offer a more complete answer for Nola’s arsenal than Ohtani, who owns a .405 xwOBA against four-seamers, .564 xwOBA and .879 xSLG against sinkers, and .376 xwOBA against changeups alongside a 93.4 mph EV, 52.9% hard-hit rate, 16.9% barrels, and .568 xSLG, all before facing a starter carrying a 5.68 ERA, .360 wOBA, and 10.1% barrel rate. |
In-depth analysis below.
Prop bet analysis
Shea Langeliers 2+ total bases (+110)
hea Langeliers enters Wednesday with one of the cleanest power profiles on the slate. His 91.9 mph average exit velocity sits comfortably above league average, while his 45.1% hard-hit rate, 15% barrel rate, and 19.7-degree launch angle describe a hitter built for extra-base damage. That combination has produced a .360 xwOBA and 37.3% sweet-spot rate. Langeliers consistently lifts the ball with enough force to reach the gaps or clear the fence, giving him several paths toward two total bases without requiring a favorable bounce or defensive mistake.
Merrill Kelly provides the strongest opposing matchup on Wednesday’s board. Kelly has allowed a .366 wOBA, .406 xwOBA, .577 xSLG, 90.3 mph average exit velocity, 44.6% hard contact, and 13.8% barrels. His 41.9% sweet-spot rate is especially damaging because hitters repeatedly reach the launch window required for extra-base contact. Langeliers also handles Kelly’s entire pitch mix, carrying a .368 xwOBA against four-seamers, .395 against sinkers, .453 against cutters, and .507 against curveballs. Kelly lacks a dependable pitch capable of consistently moving Langeliers away from his barrel, while his 14.4% strikeout rate should create repeated contact opportunities. Langeliers can clear this market with one elevated mistake or two hard singles. He owns Wednesday’s strongest 2+ total-base case.
Ben Rice 2+ total bases (-110)
Ben Rice gets the exact setup required for another productive afternoon at Yankee Stadium. He owns a confirmed second-place lineup position, which should produce four or five plate appearances, and his season-long contact supports every part of his .281/.372/.594 slash line. Rice carries a 92.3 mph average exit velocity, 48.5% hard-hit rate, 15.4% barrel rate, and 40% sweet-spot rate. Those numbers have produced a .386 xwOBA and .530 xSLG. Rice combines serious pull-side power with enough plate discipline to avoid becoming dependent upon one perfect swing.
That pull tendency becomes even more valuable in the Bronx. Rice has pulled 47.7% of his contact and already owns 15 home runs at Yankee Stadium, where ordinary elevated contact toward right field can become immediate extra bases. Mitch Keller enters with a 5.14 ERA, 5.38 xERA, .353 xwOBA, .454 xSLG, and 42.6% hard-hit rate. His strikeout rate has also fallen to 17.4%, increasing Rice’s chances of putting several balls in play. Current Yankees have generated a .359 xwOBA, .439 xSLG, and 91.8 mph average exit velocity against Keller, giving New York a broader history of authoritative contact in this matchup. Rice sits at the center of that advantage. One pulled fly ball can finish the bet immediately, while his lineup position creates a strong two-hit path.
Randy Arozarena 2+ total bases (+135)
Randy Arozarena receives a matchup built around predictability. Brady Singer throws sinkers, sliders, or sweepers on almost 90% of his pitches, allowing Arozarena to focus on two primary movement patterns. Singer wants to move the ball down and arm-side with the sinker or sweep it away from right-handed hitters. Arozarena owns the contact skill and plate discipline to wait for mistakes within those lanes. His season profile includes a 91.3 mph average exit velocity, 42.2% hard-hit rate, 37.6% sweet-spot rate, .352 xwOBA, and .419 xSLG, creating several credible paths toward two total bases.
Arozarena has also lowered his strikeout rate from 26.9% last season to 21.4%, giving him more usable contact without stripping away his ability to drive the baseball. Singer has allowed a .348 xwOBA, .464 xSLG, 90.8 mph average exit velocity, 41.7% hard contact, and 10.1% barrels. His contact has also become much more airborne, with a 56.7% air-ball rate weakening the ground-ball protection that once supported his sinker-heavy approach. Current Mariners have generated a .369 xwOBA, .519 xSLG, and 91.7 mph contact against Singer, though their actual results have lagged behind those expected numbers. Arozarena offers Seattle’s safest blend of lineup position, contact frequency, and extra-base upside.
Dillon Dingler 2+ total bases (+130)
Dillon Dingler’s current heater has become difficult to dismiss because the larger statistical profile supports it. He enters Wednesday hitting .271 with 22 home runs, 65 RBI, and an .872 OPS, while his expected production looks even stronger. Dingler owns a .373 xwOBA against a .366 wOBA, along with a 46.8% hard-hit rate, 11.1% barrel rate, and 41.4% sweet-spot rate. His 17.4-degree launch angle and 55.3% ideal attack-angle rate have produced a .450 expected wOBA on contact, showing how frequently he combines strong exit velocity with productive elevation.
Colin Rea’s pitch mix gives Dingler another excellent opportunity to extend that run. Rea throws his four-seamer 42.6% of the time, and opponents have produced a .381 xwOBA, .501 xSLG, and 44.4% hard-hit rate against it. The pitch has generated only a 13.3% strikeout rate. Dingler has crushed four-seamers for a .435 xwOBA, .648 xSLG, and 51.9% hard-hit rate while whiffing only 16.9% of the time. Rea’s secondary pitches offer little relief, with Dingler also owning a .386 xwOBA against sliders and strong results against cutters and sweepers. The recent three-homer burst will eventually cool, but Dingler’s broader improvement should remain. Rea allows too much contact, and Dingler continues punishing pitches inside the strike zone.
Shohei Ohtani 2+ total bases (-115)
Shohei Ohtani carries the strongest total-base ceiling in the Dodgers lineup against Aaron Nola. His contact remains among the most destructive in baseball, backed by a 93.4 mph average exit velocity, 52.9% hard-hit rate, 16.9% barrel rate, and 39.1% sweet-spot rate. Those numbers have produced a .408 xwOBA and .568 xSLG. Ohtani has generated 44 barrels across 261 batted balls, reached a maximum exit velocity of 114.6 mph, and still owns an actual slugging percentage below his expected mark. Even after another powerful stretch, the underlying contact suggests additional damage remains available.
Nola’s arsenal gives Ohtani several routes toward two total bases. Ohtani owns a .405 xwOBA and .549 xSLG against four-seamers, while he has destroyed sinkers for a .564 xwOBA, .879 xSLG, and 56.8% hard-hit rate. His .376 xwOBA against changeups also limits Nola’s ability to survive through velocity separation. Nola enters with a 5.68 ERA, .360 wOBA allowed, and 10.1% barrel rate. His expected numbers suggest some improvement ahead, but the barrel exposure remains dangerous against this hitter. Freddie Freeman offers the steadier pure-contact floor. Ohtani brings considerably greater exit velocity, barrel frequency, and expected slugging, making him the stronger 2+ total-base selection.
