It’s been an important couple of days for the Cleveland Guardians, who have just taken the first two games of this series against an AL Central rival. Now, they set out to complete the sweep against the Minnesota Twins and keep building on the gap in the division standings. First pitch is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET at Progressive Field.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Twins vs. Guardians game, courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Twins vs. Guardians prediction, preview
With the pair of wins this week, the Guardians are now tied for the top of the AL Central at 54-48 with a neutral run differential of 0, and they’re now 3-2 since the All-Star break. The Twins, meanwhile, dropped to 49-53 with a -36 run differential and a 1-4 skid out of the break. That leaves them five games back of first in the division.
In game one of the series, there were 17 combined runs on a grand total of 29 hits as Cleveland won 13-4 with seven homers. Last night, the Guards won 5-2 with nine hits, with five different players recording an RBI and a multi-hit effort from three batters. That was a more typical showing for this offense, but more on that momentarily. For the moment, the best news is that star third baseman Jose Ramirez returns from a hand fracture today after just being activated from the IL, adding a boost to the Guardians’ lineup.
RHP Bailey Ober (7-3) draws the start for Minnesota tonight. He brings a respectable 4.32 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP, though his 58 strikeouts across 77.0 IP do limit some of the upside. That comes out to an 18.1% K%, but a 6.5% BB% on the other end is quite good and his hard-hit rate is in the 82nd percentile. Still, the bullpen falls 27th in ERA at 5.11 with a 1.54 WHIP and an 8.7% K-BB%.
Cleveland starts RHP Slade Cecconi (4-6), who carries a 4.55 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP into the outing. He’s struck out just 77 batters in 99.0 IP for a 17.9% K%, but also has a 7.2% BB% with an above-average ground-ball rate. The club also ranks seventh in reliever ERA at 3.71 with a 1.31 WHIP and a 16.4% K-BB%.
Looking at the bats, the Twins have been one of the MLB’s more productive offenses this year. They’re ninth in runs per game (4.75) and OPS (.733) with the 11th-best ISO (.165) and 12th-most homers (124). Against right-handed pitching, they have a slash line of .255/.322/.434 for a .756 OPS. The Guardians have struggled at the dish all year with the second-fewest runs per game (4.02) and the 26th-ranked OPS (.689) — they’re also 29th in ISO (.143) and 26th in homers (101). The splits against right-handers are marginally better with a .237/.313/.389 slash line and .702 OPS.
Twins vs. Guardians pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Guardians are favorites to win outright at home with -136 odds on the Moneyline. The Twins slot in at +113 odds. The run total is set at just eight for this contest.
Momentum is not in Minnesota’s favor right now, but the visitors do have a pitcher who’s fairly efficient at keeping runners off the basepaths and allowed three earned runs across his last two starts combined. Ober has also been quite good against Cleveland’s talent in the past, allowing a 29-for-124 line for a .234 BA and .664 OPS. That’s encouraging, even with a rough bullpen behind him. It feels like the Twins’ offense should pick things back up, while the Guardians have been unusually hot at the plate in this series. With that said, give me Minny on the Moneyline.
