It’s a best vs. worst matchup on Wednesday before we head off for the WNBA All-Star break. The Lynx are in pole position for the top seed in the WNBA playoffs, while the Storm are firmly in last place. But the standings don’t tell the whole story: when these teams faced off on Monday, the Lynx barely survived with a 105-102 win. This matchup might surprise you.
The Lynx enter as 10.5-point road favorites with -501 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Storm are +370 underdogs with the game total set at 178.5 points. Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Lynx-Storm matchup.
Lynx at Storm Prediction, Preview
The big news for the Minnesota Lynx is on the injury report. Napheesa Collier, who has been the MVP runner-up in the last two seasons, is listed as probable to make her season debut. Her long battle with an ankle injury is coming to a close, and the 21-6 Lynx are ecstatic to welcome Phee back to the lineup.
What I’m watching for is how the starting lineup adjusts. When the squad has been healthy this year, head coach Cheryl Reeve prefers to roll with Olivia Miles, Courtney Williams, Nia Coffey, Kayla McBride, and Natasha Howard. Howard, the veteran, is the likeliest to move to the bench to accommodate Phee, but it’s possible that the Lynx choose to size up in a big way against a Storm team loaded with size. It’s also possible that Phee comes off the bench playing limited minutes to get her up to speed. After all, urgency is the last thing on Minnesota’s mind.
For Seattle, wins and losses aren’t the most important thing right now. As they look to rebuild, the goal is development for the core prospects, including Dominique Malonga, Awa Fam, and Flau’jae Johnson. Malonga just made her first All-Star team in her first season as a starter, and the 20-year-old’s development should scare the rest of the league. Fam, a raw talent on both ends of the floor, has been stronger than expected in her rookie year. And though Flau’jae’s offense has been a disappointment thus far, she’s hit the ground running on the defensive end of the floor.
It’s going to be an interesting couple of weeks before the WNBA trade deadline for the Storm. Natisha Hiedeman is having a breakout season as Seattle’s lead guard, but at 29 years old, she doesn’t exactly fit the team’s timeline. Stef Dolson has given them some strong minutes off the bench, but figures to be on the move as a veteran rental option. Perhaps their most interesting decisions concern Jade Melbourne and Jordan Horston, who are both young contributors about to hit free agency. If Seattle is pessimistic about their extension chances, trade avenues might be opened up.
But that’s getting ahead of things. We’ve got a game to play here. For the Storm to pull the upset, they’re going to need a bit more defense than they produced in the last game. There was some meat on the bone offensively as well, with Fam and Malonga combining for only 22 points. A bit of a step up to contain Olivia Miles and Kayla McBride—who combined for 65 points in that matchup—could lead to the upset win.
Now that we know these teams a bit better, who is going to pull out the win, and how should we bet this game?
Lynx at Storm Pick, Best Bet
Styles make fights, and these are defensive teams first and foremost. Neither coach will be happy about surrendering 100+ points in their last matchup, and I expect that both rosters got a talking-to in the film room over the last couple of days. Both sides will lock in to clean up their rotations and go to work on the glass, and the scoring total will come down a whole lot.
