For a moment, it seemed the Houston Astros were dead in the water. Now, they may have the fanbase asking to buy at the trade deadline rather than sell after all. They’ve now taken back-to-back games against the Miami Marlins, who themselves are on an eight-game losing streak and doing anything possible to stop the bleeding. On Wednesday, this series ends with first pitch at Daikin Park scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Marlins vs. Astros game, courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Marlins vs. Astros prediction, preview
Power-hitting escapades have been a theme in this series. On Monday, the Astros claimed an 8-5 win thanks to a pair of Yordan Alvarez homers and a grand slam from Jeremy Pena. Last night, Pena struck again with a solo shot and Isaac Paredes tallied three RBI with a homer as well, powering the team to a 5-3 victory. In the series overall, Miami has 17 hits to 16 for Houston.
So, the Marlins have now dropped eight consecutive games and fallen back behind in the NL East picture after playing like the best team in baseball for most of the last two months. They’re 52-50 now and have a run differential of +14. As for the Stros, they’re 49-54 with a run differential of -48. Despite the record, they’re only three games shy of first in a weak AL West.
Standout RHP Sandy Alcantara (10-5) gets the start for Miami for the 22nd time. He carries a 3.89 ERA and 1.22 WHIP into this outing. While his K% of 18.8% on 107 punchouts across 136.2 IP isn’t great, he has a 6.5% BB% while limiting barrels and keeping hard-hit balls down at an above-average rate. The Marlins’ bullpen ranks ninth in ERA at 3.80 with a 1.21 WHIP and a 14.2% K-BB%.
Houston trots out RHP Peter Lambert (8-5), who’s been a revelation this season with a 3.03 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. The 29-year-old also has 91 strikeouts in 92.0 IP. He’s performed very well this year with a 91st-percentile grade in xBA and a 3.29 xERA that’s largely in line with his actual play. The bullpen backing him ranks 18th in ERA at 4.23 with a 1.34 WHIP and a 12.5% K-BB%.
These are also some very competent offenses. The Marlins have the eighth-best OPS in baseball (.735) while the Astros are 14th (.727). Miami’s far less of a threat when it comes to power, sitting 17th in ISO (.156) and 23rd in homers (104) compared to fourth (.170) and third (139) for Houston. The Marlins do have a slightly better slash line against right-handers with a .255/.330/.411 for a .740 OPS as opposed to the Astros’ .243/.318/.418 line and .736 OPS.
Marlins vs. Astros pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Astros as -117 Moneyline favorites at home tonight with the Marlins slightly behind as -103 underdogs. The run total sits at just eight combined runs.
Nobody had Peter Lambert’s growth into a legit top-three rotation arm on their bingo cards heading into the year. Yet here he is, pitching like the best starter Houston has, allowing two earned runs over his last three starts combined. Over this span, he’s gone 5.2 innings with two more games of 6.0 frames while allowing no more than three hits in each, with just one earned run in his last two games. His strikeout totals over the same sample? Six, seven and 10. He’s dealing, playing the best baseball of his career at the moment. Over 5.5 strikeouts at +129 and under 2.5 earned runs allowed at -125 are both worth a nod. Personally, I like parlaying the pair for +234 value.
