The World Cup has come and gone, and now the world’s best soccer players have gone back to their home nations to rest before the start of most leagues’ fall-to-spring club season. Now, all that remains for soccer in the United States is Major League Soccer, which paused for the World Cup but resumed in the days before the final.
MLS’ latest big catch, Polish international and two-time World Cup participant Robert Lewandowski, is set to make his league debut when his Chicago Fire travel to face Inter Miami in South Florida. The match is scheduled to begin at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Even though they’re likely to be without Lionel Messi, whose Argentina side lost the World Cup final on Sunday, the Herons are +105 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Fire are +195. There are +300 odds that the teams will draw.
Below, I’ll break down this highly-anticipated debut and provide my favorite bet.
Inter Miami vs. Chicago Fire Best Bet:
- Robert Lewandowski Score/Chicago Fire Win (+265): Lewandowski is arguably the second-best player MLS has recruited in recent seasons, as he finished third in La Liga in goals per 90 minutes last season. He joins a Chicago team tailor-made for a high-level finisher in a friendly matchup against one of the league’s worst defenses.
Inter Miami vs. Chicago Fire prediction, pick
This matchup could be a potential playoff preview, as both teams have been excellent this season. Chicago has won three straight matches to climb to third in the Eastern Conference standings, five points behind Inter Miami with a game in hand, which has won four straight. In fact, the Fire were responsible for conference leader Nashville SC’s only loss, when they took down the Coyotes on April 1 behind Philip Zinckernagel’s first-minute goal. The 2026 campaign represents a major step forward for Chicago, which finished 15th in the East in 2024 and just eighth last season, while the Herons have hovered near the top of the standings in each of the past three seasons (in large part because of Messi’s singular brilliance).
Inter Miami still has enough depth to win even without Messi and Rodrigo De Paul, but the Herons will definitely miss their talisman. Messi has scored 12 goals and registered seven assists in 14 starts, while De Paul has four goals and four assists. Besides them, Inter Miami still has Luis Suárez, who’s scored six goals, and Germán Berterame, who has seven goals and did not receive a call-up to Mexico’s World Cup squad. Telasco Segovia, whose Venezuela side has never qualified for the World Cup, ranks second on the team with six assists. Collectively, the Herons have managed the second-most expected goals per match in MLS, producing the second-most shots and shots on target and completing passes at the eighth-highest rate, though not having De Paul and Messi will certainly hurt their distribution. Still, for what it’s invested in the attack, Inter Miami lacks strong defenders, as it has given up the eighth-most expected goals and the 12th-most shots on target per match. The Herons are one of just six teams to have lost a majority of both their ground and aerial duels, and they’ve forced high turnovers at a below-average rate. Inter Miami has allowed at least three goals in three of its past five matches, keeping a clean sheet only against the Portland Timbers.
There’s no pressure for Lewandowski to immediately step in and produce, as the Fire already have the league’s leading goal scorer, former Gent striker Hugo Cuypers, on their roster. Cuypers has 13 goals in just 11 games, and Zinckernagel has chipped in with five goals and six assists of his own. Given that Lewandowski ranked third in La Liga in goals per 90 minutes last season, he should be purely additive to a front line that has produced the fourth-most expected goals per match on the fifth-most shots but lacks a truly elite finisher. To be fair, Chicago has to pass more effectively to get it to his feet in a good position, but it’s completed crosses at the second-highest rate, and despite his advanced age, he was still a header threat for Barcelona last season. Additionally, the Fire haven’t sacrificed the defense quite as much as the Herons have; they’ve allowed 11 fewer goals, ranking ninth in expected goals per match on the 12th-fewest shots, and while they have also lost a majority of both their ground and aerial duels, they rank near the top of the league in tackles, blocks, and clearances per match. Chicago has been better at pulling the offsides trap, pressing and forcing high turnovers more effectively, and it’s been slightly more disciplined. Mbekezeli Mbokazi, a South African wunderkind who was one of the breakout stars of the World Cup, is back to patrol the middle. Chris Brady, who earned a call-up to the US Men’s National Team for the World Cup, is the better goalkeeper.
Despite having Cuypers, basically all this Fire team needed was a second top-level finisher, and Lewandowski is arguably the most in-form player to move to MLS since Messi in 2023. In Chicago’s most recent match, a 2-1 win over Toronto FC, head coach Gregg Berhalter (the former USMNT boss) experimented with a two-striker formation, starting Cuypers up front alongside Robin Lod, a far worse player than Lewandowski. I don’t trust Inter Miami’s back line or goalkeeper Dayne St. Clair, and wing-backs Ian Frey and Sergio Reguilón are more attack-oriented wing-backs than pure defenders. The Herons have been far too mistake-prone, ranking third in errors leading to a shot per match, and Lewandowski will surely pounce. It’s unclear if he’ll play all 90 minutes, but if he does play, I expect him to score in a Fire win.
