Tipping off as part of today’s six-game WNBA slate, the Connecticut Sun will face off with the Indiana Fever.
This is the second of three meetings between these two teams this season. They last faced off on June 13th, which resulted in an 85-75 win by the Fever.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Fever enter as 9.5-point favorites and hold -489 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sun hold +363 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 178.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Sun at Fever matchup.
Sun at Fever Preview
The Connecticut Sun have slipped to the 14th seed in the WNBA with a 7-19 record on the season. They are coming off a loss to the Phoenix Mercury in their previous game, but they have won two of their last three. On the season overall, Connecticut has gone 14-12 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 14 of its 26 games.
Brittney Griner headlines the production for the Sun, posting averages of 14.1 points and 5.6 rebounds per game. Griner is listed as questionable for tonight’s matchup with a knee injury. Saniya Rivers joins her on the injury report as questionable with a left foot/ankle injury, while Aaliyah Edwards will miss tonight due to a right knee issue. Leila Lacan will see her role scaled up and look to add to her season averages of 12.9 points and 4.5 assists. Aneesah Morrow is the lone other player to be averaging in double figures with 10.5 points and 9.4 rebounds per game, while Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Diamond Miller and Charlisse Leger-Walker each also play key roles.
As a team, the Sun are scoring 79.7 points per game, which ranks 15th in the league. Connecticut also ranks last in offensive rating, as well as 12th in field-goal percentage and last in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 85.7 points per game against the Sun, which ranks fifth in the league. They also rank seventh in defensive rating, eighth in opponent field-goal percentage and 13th in opponent three-point percentage.
The Indiana Fever enter with a 16-10 record on the season, which slots them in sixth place in the WNBA standings. They enter this matchup coming off back-to-back wins and have picked up victories in six of their past eight. On the season overall, the Fever have gone 13-13 against the spread, and the game total is 16-10 to the over/under.
Kelsey Mitchell headlines the production on the season, averaging 23.3 points and 2.8 assists per game. Caitlin Clark is not far behind with 20.7 points and a team-high 7.8 assists. Clark has battled a back injury this season, but she is considered probable for tonight’s matchup. Damiris Dantas is the lone other player on the injury report and will miss due to a left knee injury. Aliyah Boston contributes 17.1 points and 8.6 rebounds, while Sophie Cunningham, Monique Billings, Tyasha Harris, Myisha Hines-Allen and Shatori Walker-Kimbrough also play key roles on the team.
Indiana leads the WNBA in scoring at 94.4 points per game. The Fever also rank first in offensive rating, third in pace, third in field-goal percentage and second in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 89.7 points per game against the Fever, which ranks 12th in the league. Indiana also ranks 11th in defensive rating and 10th in opponent field-goal percentage, while allowing the fewest three-point attempts per game.
Sun at Fever Pick, Best Bet
The gap in offensive production between these two teams is massive, and beyond what the 9.5-point spread indicates. There have been some fair reasons for encouragement surrounding this Connecticut Sun squad as of late, but Indiana has an offensive engine that they will not be braced for.
Indiana leads the WNBA in scoring and offensive rating, averaging 94.4 points per game. It has only been held below 83 points in three of its 26 games played this season. In contrast, the Sun rank dead last in scoring at 79.7 points per game and dead last in offensive rating. Connecticut has been held to 82 or fewer points in 17 of its 26 games played.
In the first matchup between these two teams, the Fever produced an 85-75 win over the Sun. Indiana held a lead for 78% of the matchup, but it was unable to extend it beyond 11 points throughout. The Fever had some costly turnovers, coughing it up 19 times in the matchup, which led to 25 points for the Sun. Turnovers have been a bit of a problem for the Fever all season, as they rank 12th in the league in turnovers, but this was tied for their third-most in any game this season. On the other side, Connecticut has been sloppy with the ball of late, with a 22.4% spike in turnover percentage over the past five games, which will only lead to increased chances for the Fever in transition.
Expect a cleaner offensive approach from Indiana in this second matchup. It has been in an offensive groove of late, scoring 108+ in five of its past nine games, and Connecticut has not eclipsed this level of scoring at any point this season. Indiana does an excellent job dictating the pace of a game, and expect it to have more success winning the transition battle in this second matchup. Don’t be surprised if this game gets out of control early, and count on the Fever maintaining full control throughout to record their 10th double-digit victory of the season.
