The Bengals popped in 2021, winning 10 games and reaching the Super Bowl. Ultimately, they fell short, but there was no Super Bowl hangover in Cincinnati, winning 12 games in 2022 (despite only playing 16 games). However, things have gone down hill since, going 9-8 in consecutive seasons, before the wheels fell off in 2025 with a 6-11 finish. Will 2026 be a bounce-back year for the Bengals?
Cincinnati Bengals O/U 9.5 Wins
There’s no doubting the talent on Cincinnati’s roster, but there have been two glaring issues over the decline the past couple of season — health and defense. If the Bengals can remain healthy and fix a defense that gave up almost 29 points per game in 2025 (30th in the NFL), this could be a Super Bowl contender. Of course, all of that is much easier said than done.
It all starts with Joe Burrow, who missed significant time with a turf toe injury that derailed 2025 for the Bengals — they went 1-8 without him. Keeping Burrow healthy is obviously crucial to this team having success, but his recent injury history has been pretty fluky. Cincy returns what was a durable offensive line from 2025, and should be able to protect Burrow well this season. All the key playmakers are in place, with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, along with Chase Brown in the backfield. I don’t think we really need to defense the offense here. We know it can hum, it just needs to stay healthy.
What we do need to make the case for serious improvement with is the defense. It was embarrassingly bad in 2025, but likely partially suffered due to the lack of offense without Burrow. Nonetheless, it was ugly, and clearly needed to be revamped to give this team a chance to win. But that’s exactly what the Bengals went out and did.
The defensive line, specifically, has been overhauled into a unit that should be able to get a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Yes, Trey Hendrickson is gone, but he was replaced with multiple stars. The Bengals traded away a high first round pick to the Giants in exchange for a game-wrecker in Dexter Lawrence. Boye Mafe comes in to play on the edge after having a ton of success for the defending Super Bowl champs in Seattle. Jonathan Allen also enters the equation as a veteran presence to stabilize the defensive front.
The secondary also needed work, and moves were made. Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger both signed with Cincy, and the Bengals invested a third round pick in Tacario Davis — an athletic corner with size out of Washington. The pieces are in place for the defense to make a leap and get the ball back into the hands of Burrow, rather than drives ending in with the opponent in the end zone.
While you never want to put too much weight on the schedule in the NFL, this one is worth pointing out. Sure, any game can become far more difficult than it looks on the schedule preseason — injuries happen and surprise teams enter the equation. That said, 13 of Cincinnati’s 17 games are against teams that finished under .500 last season. Yes, that does include the Ravens and the Chiefs, but time will tell how those teams progress in 2026. The final eight games of the season all come against teams that were under .500 in 2025, so there’s a chance for the Bengals to really finish on a strong note. Cincinnati’s strength of schedule ranks 30th overall.
Bettors are DraftKings are taking notice, with a 94% ticket count and 92% of the money on OVER 9.5 wins (as of August 1st) — which is ticking to 10.5 at some shops.
All of that combined had me bullish on Cincinnati to return to form in 2026. I think this should be a double digit win team, with the potential to return to the form of that 2022 team that won 12 games.
NFL Pick: Bengals OVER 9.5 Wins (-150)
