Watch out, here come… the Detroit Tigers? Suddenly, this club has found itself back within striking distance of a postseason berth following a hot stretch, and if they can keep it going, perhaps there’s a world where they hold onto Cy Young ace Tarik Skubal rather than deal him via trade. Last night, they met the Chicago Cubs in a rainy affair at Wrigley Field. The series continues on Tuesday night in Wrigleyville with first pitch set for 8:10 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Tigers vs. Cubs game, courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tigers vs. Cubs prediction, preview
As it turns out, Detroit might be a competitive baseball team after all. The Tigers are just 47-53, but they have a +33 run differential and have shown signs of life and are tied for the second-best winning percentage in the MLB since July 1 at .714. Now, they’re 6.5 games back of the AL Central lead and only 4.5 shy of a Wild Card spot. Looking toward the Cubs, they’re still second in the NL Central at 56-44 with a +60 run differential. At 7.0 games back of first, it’ll take a serious effort to push back to the top of the division standings.
This three-game series began last night with an 8-6 win for the Tigers. In that outing, they narrowly out-hit the Cubs 12-11 and overcame the home side with a three-run 10th inning. Notably, Gleyber Torres returned from injury for Detroit to the tune of a 2-for-3 night with a run and a pair of walks, too.
For the Tigers, LHP Framber Valdez gets the start after going just 5-6 in his 19 starts with the club so far. The numbers are respectable enough — a 4.10 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP — but he’s lacked the ace arm seen in Houston over the last few years. His K% is also way down at 18.6%, notching just 87 punchouts across 107.2 IP, though he remains an elite ground-ball pitcher. The club’s bullpen is also 10th in ERA at 3.81 with a 1.33 WHIP and a 12.6% K-BB%.
For Chicago, LHP David Peterson takes his 11th start of the season with a 4-7 record in 19 total games with the Mets and Cubs. He has a 6.45 ERA and 1.64 WHIP with 70 strikeouts in 82.1 IP, some very rough results overall. He allowed two or fewer earned runs in two of his three starts for his new team, but was tagged for a whopping 10 earned runs in another, so what they’ll get from him remains uncertain. The relief staff sits 15th in ERA at 4.06 with a 1.32 WHIP and a 12.0% K-BB%.
When it comes to bats, the Cubs are among the MLB’s best units. They’re fourth in OPS at .751 and have an 0.51 BB/K ratio that ties for best in baseball thanks to an 11.1% BB%. They’re also eighth in ISO (.168) and 10th in home runs (126). Plus a matchup against a lefty is a welcome sight — the club boasts a .268/.359/.440 slash line for a .778 OPS in the split, second best among all clubs. The Tigers are 19th in OPS at .712 with an 0.40 BB/K ratio, also ranking 12th in overall ISO (.165) and 13th in home runs (122). The southpaw assignment is less desirable though, slashing .231/.321/.381 for an OPS of .703 in said split.
Tigers vs. Cubs pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Cubs are -122 Moneyline favorites at home while the Tigers slot in as +101 road underdogs for an outright win. The run total is set at eight for this contest.
The sample size is small, but Valdez has been of high quality when facing current Chicago batters. Opposing hitters are just 4-for-32 against him with 12 strikeouts and only three walks, no homers, and one double. That’s quite the line for the southpaw, but he has notably been a little hit-happy with nine knocks conceded in two of his last three starts. The Cubs are a difficult assignment given the lefty split, but perhaps they’re one that he can handle to limit the damage in.
Even if you’re not a big believer in the former Astros ace, it’s much more difficult to feel good about Peterson out there. Toss out the Tigers’ batting split against lefties and just look at the hurler’s numbers. In three games with Chicago, he’s thrown a total of 14.1 innings with 13 earned runs allowed on 16 hits, three homers and seven walks. Sure, that’s inflated significantly by a blow-up game, but we’re still talking about a 1.60 WHIP that’s just about in line with his 1.65 from earlier this season with the Mets. Detroit’s bats aren’t exactly spectacular this year, but the addition of Torres back into the mix helps a lot and they can certainly shell the southpaw. I like the underdog on the Moneyline.
