The New York Liberty will take on the Dallas Wings as part of tonight’s four-game WNBA slate. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET.
This is the third and final matchup between these two teams this season. The Wings have come out victorious in both previous matchups and will be looking to extend this streak tonight. They first met on May 24th, which resulted in a 91-76 victory by the Wings. The Liberty also fell by a score of 88-77 in the most recent matchup, which took place on July 7th.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Liberty enter as 3.5-point favorites and hold -166 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Wings hold +140 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 176.5.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction and pick for this Liberty at Wings matchup.
Liberty at Wings Preview
It has been a frustrating season for the New York Liberty, who limp into this matchup with a 13-12 overall record. They are looking to snap a four-game losing streak and have lost eight of their past 11. On the season overall, the Liberty are 10-15 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 15 of their 25 games played.
Breanna Stewart headlines the production, posting averages of 20.6 points and 8.4 rebounds. Jonquel Jones adds 14.9 points and 9.2 rebounds per game, while Sabrina Ionescu pitches in 13.2 points, 4.2 assists and 3.7 rebounds. Marine Johannes and Leonie Fiebich also average in double digits. However, both find themselves on the injury report ahead of tonight’s matchup. Fiebich will remain sidelined with a left foot injury, while Johannes is considered questionable due to a left ankle problem. Satou Sabally will also miss tonight’s game as she remains in concussion protocol.
The Liberty are scoring 87.8 points per game, which ranks eighth in the WNBA. They also rank sixth in offensive rating, sixth in field-goal percentage and fifth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are averaging 85.4 points per game against New York, the sixth-best mark in the WNBA. The Liberty also rank seventh in defensive rating, sixth in opponent field-goal percentage and eighth in opponent three-point percentage.
The Dallas Wings sit in fourth place in the WNBA with a 17-8 record on the year. They are looking to extend a six-game winning streak, with a victory over the Liberty included in this. On the season overall, Dallas has gone 12-13 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 14 of their 25 games played.
Paige Bueckers headlines the production with 20.9 points, 6.2 assists, and 4.2 rebounds per game. Jessica Sheppard also stuffs the stat sheet, contributing 14.8 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game. Arike Ogunbowale adds 13.6 points and leads the team in three-point volume, while first overall pick Azzi Fudd contributes 13.3 points of her own. Maddy Siegrist, Awak Kuier, and Aziaha James also play key roles.
Dallas is scoring 89.5 points per game, which ranks fourth in the WNBA. The Wings also rank third in offensive rating, fourth in field-goal percentage, and eighth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 85.2 points per game against the Wings, which ranks fourth in the league. Dallas also ranks fifth in defensive rating, 10th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 12th in opponent three-point percentage.
Liberty at Wings Pick, Best Bet
The Wings have picked up victories in each of the previous two matchups with the Liberty. In their first meeting, Dallas shot an efficient 46% from the floor and 43% from beyond the three-point arc, although they were outscored by 20 points in the paint. While the final score finished 91-76 in the Wings’ favor, this was a tightly contested battle in which both teams led for 45%+ of the game, and Dallas was able to stretch their advantage in the second half to secure the win.
In the most recent matchup between these two sides, the Wings held a lead for 73% of the matchup and stretched their advantage to as many as 16 en route to the 88-77 win. Dallas struggled from the perimeter, shooting 6-for-23 (26%) on three-point attempts, but did a better job scoring in the paint, and New York faced similar perimeter shooting issues. The Wings also notched assists on 29 of their 35 made field goals, while the Liberty tallied just 16 assists in the game.
This is the second night of a back-to-back for the Wings after they defeated the Los Angeles Sparks 90-82 last night. But it is still a bit of a surprise to me for the Liberty to be favored by 3.5-points given how the past matchups and the state of each team. New York being without Leonie Fiebich, Satou Sabally, and potentially Marine Johannes is a big deal for this Liberty team. They prefer to play an aggressive style of defense where recovery is important. Expect Paige Bueckers to have success putting the Liberty bigs in pick-and-roll coverage and walking into some clean mid-range jump shots. New York is also allowing opponents to shoot 40% from beyond the three-point arc over their past five games, which is problematic against this Dallas backcourt.
Dallas is 5-3 against the spread with a rest disadvantage this year and has covered the spread in three of their past five games. They were +6.5 and +4.5 point underdogs in the two previous matchups with the Liberty, and the Wings won both games outright. New York has also failed to cover the spread in five straight games and in 10 of their last 12 games.
I am backing the Wings to pull off the outright upset and take down the Liberty for the third time this season. Dallas has played impressive basketball of late, and this is a great matchup for their guard unit to continue playing in attack mode. Expect the Wings’ winning streak to continue and for the outlook for the Liberty to continue slipping.
