The Houston Astros briefly showed signs of life in recent weeks, but things seem to be falling apart in Space City lately with some very ugly results coming out of the All-Star break. Tonight, they begin a new series against the Miami Marlins, who are on the opposite end of the spectrum as one of the hottest teams in baseball over the last two months. First pitch at Daikin Park is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET tonight.
Let’s five in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Marlins vs. Astros game, courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Marlins vs. Astros prediction, preview
These clubs are both a curious case, but for entirely different reasons. The home-team Astros are just 47-54 this year and have a run differential of -53; though they showed some fight and were briefly within very close range of the AL West lead (albeit not a difficult task given the poor nature of its teams this season), going 3-7 over their last 10 games and suffering a sweep out of the All-Star break now has many fans clamoring to jump-start a rebuild. The Marlins, meanwhile, were on an absurd hot streak ever since June 1 and have a .650 winning percentage that paces the MLB since that point. However, six straight losses (three since the break) now have them back in third among the NL East at 52-48 with a +19 differential, 6.0 games back of the division lead. Baseball is a fickle sport to begin with, but momentum is even more difficult to sustain in this league.
It’s a big night for Houston as RHP Ronel Blanco takes the mound for the pro club for the first time since May of last year. He’s coming off Tommy John surgery but was quite solid last time we saw him at the MLB level, when he threw nine games with a 4.10 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP and 48 strikeouts across 48.1 IP. In one Double-A and two Triple-A starts this July, he threw 10.2 innings with nine hits allowed, two earned runs, three walks and six strikeouts. The Astros’ bullpen ranks 19th in ERA at 4.24 with a 1.33 WHIP and a 12.2% K-BB%.
Miami sends RHP Janson Junk to the bump tonight with a 4-5 record in his 12 starts this year. The 30-year-old has a 4.57 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and just 48 strikeouts across 65.0 IP. He’s delivered a low K% of 17.4% but he does bring a 6.2% BB% that falls in the 84th percentile, so that’s a positive. The bullpen slots in with a 3.78 ERA that ranks ninth among all clubs while a 1.22 WHIP and 14.1% K-BB% are both quality numbers.
Looking toward the bats, both clubs are in the MLB’s top half when it comes to run creation with Houston and Miami 13th (4.50) and 15th (4.47) respectively. The Marlins do bring the better overall line with a .735 OPS that ranks eighth in baseball compared to a .724 mark for the Astros, but for what it’s worth, each of these batting orders get the more attractive side of their splits against right-handers this evening. Miami has a .256/.330/.410 slash line and .740 OPS against righties; Houston comes in at .243/.318/.415 for a .733 OPS. The key difference is in the power — the Astros are third in home runs (134) this season and sixth in ISO (.168) overall compared to the Marlins at 25th (101) and 17th (.156). Those trends also largely hold up against right-handers in particular.
Marlins vs. Astros pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Astros as -123 Moneyline favorites at home tonight with the Marlins behind as slight plus-money underdogs at +102. The run total comes in at nine combined runs.
One way or another, a losing streak comes to a close tonight. The beneficiary of that is tougher to project, but with that said, there’s potentially some value in the over on the run line. Daikin Park is very hitter friendly and both of these offenses are very capable when clicking at their best, also seeing the benefit of their splits against right-handers here. Especially for Miami, the potential to light up a hurler making his first MLB start in over a year could bring some extra scoring opportunities in the early innings, though Blanco is sure to see a pretty reduced workload in his first game back. Given the starter matchup, I actually prefer over 5.5 combined runs through the first five innings rather than a traditional total — the Marlins’ bullpen is one of the MLB’s best and Houston’s isn’t shabby whatsoever if you look at the reliever numbers since July began (3.58 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 20.9% K-BB%).
