Sunday afternoon brings another full slate of daytime contests, with all 30 teams in action and the Yankees and Dodgers playing a doubleheader after yesterday’s washout. Four of the games start shortly after 4:00 p.m. ET, before the Sunday Night Baseball matchup wraps up that doubleheader between two of the best teams in baseball. Let’s look at those five later matchups and find some juicy home run props for Sunday. My favorite players to target for a long ball this Sunday are Shea Langeliers, Spencer Torkelson, and Shohei Ohtani.
It should be a great afternoon to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Shea Langeliers | Athletics | Over his last 11 games, Langeliers has a 65% hard-hit rate and 25% barrel rate. Foster Griffin has allowed 17 homers in 19 starts, even though he has good numbers overall. |
| Spencer Torkelson | Tigers | In his last 11 games, Torkelson has five homers and a 40% hard-hit rate and a 23.3% barrel rate. He has a good matchup against rookie righty Ryan Johnson. |
| Shohei Ohtani | Dodgers | Ohtani has a 57.1% hard-hit rate and 33.3% barrel rate in his last seven games coming into Sunday, with four homers bringing him to 22 on the season. Warm temperatures and winds blowing out to RF set up espcially well for him. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive in for a deeper look at these three plays on Sunday.
Top MLB home run props today: Analysis
Shea Langeliers to Hit a Home Run (+249)
The A’s and Nationals have had plenty of offense in their first two games at Sutter Health Park. On Friday, the Nationals took the series-opener, 23-4, but the Athletics bounced back and won 15-1 on Saturday. In the final game of the set, Nationals All-Star lefty Foster Griffin will get the start against the A’s, which sets up well for Shea Langeliers to be a strong option in Sunday’s home run props.
Langeliers has 22 homers in his 88 games this year, and he has hit 11 of those homers in his 42 games at home at Sutter Health Park. Langeliers is hitting .281 with a .437 wOBA at home, and he homered on Friday in his first game after the break.
Griffin has been very solid this season, going 10-2 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his 19 starts for the Nationals after spending the last three seasons in the Nippon Professional Baseball Organization in Japan. Despite his success, he has allowed 17 homers in 19 games, and righties like Bangeliers have hit 13 of those 17 long balls.
Over his last 11 games, Langeliers has a 65% hard-hit rate and 25% barrel rate. He only has three homers during that span, but he’s smashing at least one ball in almost every game.
Spencer Torkelson Marte to Hit a Home Run (+315)
Torkelson smashed a pair of homers on Saturday against the Angels, giving him 18 homers on the season and five in his last 11 games.
In those 11 games, Torkelson had a 40% hard-hit rate and a 23.3% barrel rate. He has only hit .184 over that span, but five of the nine hits he has had have left the yard.
He’ll be taking on Ryan Johnson, who is 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA and 6.37 FIP. He has allowed nine homers, and righties have four of those nine homers (44%) in just 55 at-bats (41%). Righties have hit .291 against him with a .915 OPS and .379 wOBA.
Torkelson brings enough home-run hitting form to be a good play in this matchup, as he looks to help the Tigers close out a sweep to start the second half.
Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+252)
In the nightcap, the Dodgers are going with a bullpen game, and the Yankees may “potentially” go with rookie Elmer Rodríguez, depending on how the first game plays out. Without a lot to go on from the matchup, instead I’m going with pure home run momentum and pedigree and backing Shohei. Ohtani had four homers in his last six games before the All-Star break, including this moonshot.
He is dealing with knee soreness that will keep him from pitching for a while, but he continues to rake. If he’s in the lineup against Rodríguez, he’ll bring plenty of home run upside after posting a 57.1% hard-hit rate and 33.3% barrel rate in his last seven games before Sunday’s doubleheader.
The weather should be homer-friendly on Sunday night, especially for lefties with temperatures near 80 degrees and the wind blowing out to right field. Ohtani has great form and is starting to find his groove at the plate, and he’ll look to continue to produce at the plate, even if he isn’t able to get back on the mound for a while.
