Closing down Sunday’s three-game WNBA slate, the Connecticut Sun will take on the Phoenix Mercury.
This is the second of back-to-back matchups between these two teams. On Friday, the Sun cruised to a 96-83 win over the Mercury to pull off the +154 upset.
Looking at the odds for the rematch, the Mercury enter as 4.5-point favorites once again and hold -180 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sun hold +150 odds of getting the win, with the game total set at 167.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Sun at Mercury matchup.
Sun at Mercury Preview
The Connecticut Sun have slipped to 7-18 on the season, which slots them at 14th place in the WNBA standings. They enter this matchup coming off back-to-back wins and have won five of their past eight games. It has been an encouraging overall stretch, and Connecticut has moved to 14-11 against the spread on the year. The game total has also gone over in 14 of the Sun’s 25 games so far this year.
Brittney Griner headlines the production for the Sun, posting averages of 13.8 points and 5.7 rebounds per game. Griner is listed as probable for tonight’s matchup with a rib injury. Leila Lacan adds 13.3 points and a team-high 4.6 assists, while Aneesah Morrow contributes 10.5 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. Morrow is considered questionable for today’s matchup and has missed five straight games as she continues to complete her return-to-play reconditioning due to her leg strain. Aaliyah Edwards and Saniya Rivers are also on the injury report, but both are listed as probable. Edwards adds 9.9 points and 4.0 rebounds per game, while Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Diamond Miller and Charlisse Leger-Walker each also play key roles.
As a team, the Sun are scoring 80.4 points per game, which ranks 14th in the league. Connecticut also ranks 14th in offensive rating, 12th in field-goal percentage and last in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 86.2 points per game against the Sun, which ranks eighth in the league. They also rank 10th in defensive rating, eighth in opponent field-goal percentage and 13th in opponent three-point percentage.
The Phoenix Mercury enter with an 8-18 record on the season, which slots them at 13th place in the WNBA standings. They are looking to snap a five-game losing streak, with the previous loss to the Sun their most recent result. On the season, Phoenix has gone a WNBA-worst 10-16 against the spread, and the game total is 13-13 to the over/under.
Kahleah Copper headlines the production for the Mercury, averaging 20.6 points and 3.8 rebounds per game. Alyssa Thomas adds 14.5 points, 8.0 assists and 6.9 rebounds, largely setting the tone for this Phoenix team. Jovana Nogic is the lone other player to average in double figures with 10.4 points per game. Monique Akoa Makani, DeWanna Bonner and Lexi Held also play key roles. Natasha Mack and Sami Whitcomb are the lone names on the Mercury injury report, each listed as probable for tonight’s matchup.
The Mercury are scoring 83.3 points per game this season, which ranks 11th in the WNBA. They also rank 12th in offensive rating, 10th in field-goal percentage and ninth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 87.6 points per game against Phoenix, which ranks 10th in the league. The Mercury also ranks 12th in defensive rating, 14th in opponent field-goal percentage and 14th in opponent three-point percentage.
Sun at Mercury Pick, Best Bet
The Sun picked up a 96-83 win over the Mercury on Friday, and these two teams have remained in Connecticut for the second consecutive game. It was a wire-to-wire win for the Sun, who stretched the lead to as many as 20. They broke the game open in the second quarter, taking a 54-37 lead into halftime and never looking back. Connecticut dominated the rebounding battle 34-27 and shot an impressive 52% from the floor.
This was an impressive result for the Sun, but one that should have been expected based on the state of both organizations. These are two teams trending in opposite directions in recent games. The Sun enter today’s matchup having won five of their past eight games, their most impressive stretch of the season, while the Mercury have lost five straight. Phoenix had a six-game losing streak earlier on in the season, so a loss today would match its season-high in this unfortunate category.
This is how I foresee things going, with the level of play from the Mercury deserving of some serious red flags as of late. Phoenix has given up 92+ points in four straight games and 102+ in two of its last four. It has also been limited to as few as 58 points in this stretch and shot 29.2% or worse from beyond the three-point arc in three of these matchups.
Connecticut has also largely dominated this matchup as of late, winning seven of the last nine games between these two teams. It has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games overall and is playing some of its best basketball of the season. The Mercury have also failed to cover the spread in their last three games against Eastern Conference opponents as favorites and their last six games against Eastern Conference opponents with a losing record.
Expect the same flaws that were evident with the Mercury on Friday to show face today, and for the Sun to take advantage for their third straight win. Count on momentum to carry for both sides, and for the rebounding battle to once again favor the Sun. Back Connecticut to pull off the upset for the second consecutive matchup with the Mercury tonight.
