In the final matchup of Saturday’s three-game WNBA slate, the Washington Mystics will take on the Golden State Valkyries.
This is the second of three matchups between these cross-conference opponents and the first of a back-to-back series between the two teams. During the first battle, the Valkyries picked up a 62-49 victory over the Mystics.
The Valkyries enter as 8.5-point home favorites with -380 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mystics are +300 underdogs, with the game total set at 148.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Mystics-Valkyries matchup.
Mystics at Valkyries Preview
The Washington Mystics are off to a 12-11 start to the season, which slots them at eighth place in the WNBA standings. They are looking to bounce back from a loss to the Portland Fire in the previous game, but have won four of their past six matchups. On the season, the Mystics have gone 12-11 against the spread, and the game total is 11-12 to the over/under.
Sonia Citron headlines the production for the Mystics, averaging 17.3 points, 4.1 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game. Kiki Iriafen adds 15 points and 9.5 rebounds per game, while Shakira Austin pitches in 14.4 points and 9.1 rebounds to provide balance in the frontcourt. Michaela Onyenwere is the lone other player averaging in double figures, adding 10.1 points per game, while Cotie McMahon and Georgia Amoore also play key roles.
Washington is scoring the fewest points per game in the WNBA at 80 per matchup. The Mystics also rank 15th in offensive rating, 14th in field-goal percentage and 14th in three-point percentage while attempting the second-fewest three-pointers in the league. Defensively, opponents are scoring 82.9 points per game against Washington, which ranks third in the league. The Mystics also rank third in defensive rating, third in opponent field-goal percentage and third in opponent three-point percentage.
The Golden State Valkyries enter with an 18-7 record on the season, which marks the second-best record in the league. They enter this matchup on an eight-game winning streak, with their last loss coming on June 21st against the Las Vegas Aces. This season, the Valkyries have gone 15-10 against the spread, and the game total has gone under in 14 of their 25 games.
Gabby Williams headlines the production for Golden State, averaging 15 points and 3.5 rebounds per game. Janelle Salaun adds 13 points and four rebounds off the bench, while Veronica Burton is the lone other player to average in double figures with 11.9 points and a team-high 5.2 assists. Kayla Thornton, Kiah Stokes, Cecilia Zandalasini and Kaila Charles each also play key roles. Juste Jocyte is the lone player listed on the injury report and will miss Saturday’s matchup due to left foot soreness.
Golden State is scoring 82.2 points per game, which ranks 12th in the WNBA. They also rank eighth in offensive rating, 15th in field-goal percentage, and fifth in three-point percentage, while launching the most perimeter shots in the league. Defensively, opponents are averaging 76.1 points per game against Golden State, the lowest mark in the league. The Valkyries also rank first in defensive rating, second in opponent field-goal percentage, and 10th in opponent three-point percentage.
Mystics at Valkyries Pick, Best Bet
These teams rank 14th and 15th in the WNBA in pace, which limits their scoring outlook. Golden State secured a 62-49 win in the first matchup between these two teams. The Valkyries shot 35% from the floor and 18% from beyond the arc, while the Mystics shot 30% from the field and 13% on long-range attempts. Golden State stretched the lead to as many as 15 and held control for 62% of the matchup, while the Mystics held a lead for 25% of the game.
It is also worth noting that the first matchup between these two teams took place in Washington. Home court advantage has significantly favored the Valkyries since they joined the WNBA. They went 14-8 at home last season straight up, and they are 10-3 in front of the Golden State faithful this season. The Valkyries have also gone 8-5 against the spread at home this year and are 6-3 against the spread as a home favorite.
Golden State is a perfect 5-0 against Washington since they entered the WNBA. The Valkyries are in excellent form of late, winning eight straight and covering the spread in seven of these matchups. They have won each of their last 10 games against Eastern Conference opponents, and they have covered the spread in six consecutive games against teams with a winning record. In contrast, the Mystics have lost seven consecutive games against Western Conference opponents with a winning record and failed to cover the spread in four consecutive games against Western Conference opponents overall.
I am backing the Valkyries and not blinking at the 8.5-point spread. Golden State has dominated this matchup and is in excellent form of late. Washington put forth a respectable effort in the first matchup, out-rebounding Golden State by 11 and having more success scoring on the interior. But the Valkyries hold a similar basketball identity and are more polished on both sides of the ball. Even with the low total, my lean is toward the under, as both teams will look to soak up significant time on the shot clock.
But Golden State is holding opponents to the fewest points per game and leads the league in defensive rating. Facing a Mystics team that ranks last in scoring and offensive rating, expect scoring to be difficult for Washington. The 49 points they were limited to in the first matchup were the fewest points the Mystics have scored all season, and there should be more of the same as they now play in the more hostile environment. Count on the Valkyries’ defense to be the difference and on Golden State to have enough scoring to cover this 8.5-point spread.
