Tonight’s Real American Freestyle event is headlined by a Cruiserweight Crossover Championship match between Arman Tsarukyan vs. Colby Covington. RAF 11 is taking place in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, at UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena. The co-main event of this card is Ben Askren vs. Belal Muhammad.
Check out my best bet for Arman Tsarukyan vs. Colby Covington at RAF 11 below.
Colby Covington Moneyline (+400)
After losing two consecutive fights in the UFC, Colby Covington decided to retire and focus on competing regularly in wrestling. Before MMA fame, Covington began his combat sports journey as a wrestler. He started at Iowa Central Community College, where he won an NJCAA Championship, and then transferred to Oregon State, where he won two Pac-10 Championships. So far, Covington has gone 3-0 in RAF with wins over Chris Weidman, Dillon Danis and Luke Rockhold. But now Covington is allowed to compete against an active UFC fighter after retiring.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Tsarukyan is the favorite at +650 while Covington is the underdog at +400.
Tsarukyan is currently the No. 2 UFC Lightweight contender but hasn’t fought since November 2025, when he submitted Dan Hooker. Since he hasn’t been fighting often in the UFC, Tsarukyan has decided to stay active while competing in wrestling and grappling matches. Since May 2025, Tsarukyan is 12-0 with one draw in 13 wrestling or grappling competitions. Tsarukyan enters this bout with a 7-0 record in RAF and last beat Kuat Khamitov last week at the promotion’s event in Georgia. Although Tsarukyan is on an excellent winning streak, he hasn’t faced someone as talented as Covington in a wrestling match.
Covington is naturally the bigger fighter in this contest, as he spent the majority of his MMA career at 170 pounds, while Tsarukyan competes at 155 pounds. Also, Covington is four inches taller than Tsarukyan (5’11” vs. 5’7″). Tsarukyan is extremely athletic and has an awkward style that could cause problems, but Covington still has much more experience in collegiate -style wrestling matches. Getting Covington to beat Tsarukyan at +400 is a phenomenal play considering Covington’s experience in the sport.
