If you asked me before the season, I would have told you the New York Liberty and the Indiana Fever would be the top two teams in the Eastern Conference and two inner-circle contenders for the WNBA championship. But so far, there have been struggles. Though both are currently playoff teams if the season ended today, neither would have home-court advantage in the first round, and would face a tough road to accomplishing their goals. These games will be huge for playoff positioning, making them all the more important.
Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET. The Liberty is a 1.5-point road favorite with -125 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. A Fever upset is priced at +105, with the game total set at O/U 175.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Liberty-Fever game.
Liberty vs. Fever Preview
Injuries have dominated the narrative for the Liberty this season. Sabrina Ionescu and Satou Sabally’s struggles have kept them from consistently fielding a full lineup, which has sorely tested new head coach Chris DeMarco. But it’s not all doom and gloom.
The Jonquel Jones-Breanna Stewart frontcourt continues to dominate on both ends of the floor. That has been the basis for their success all season long. Leonie Fiebich remains a star in her role, and rookie Pauline Astier has stepped admirably into a lot of Ionescu’s minutes. Of course, Marine Johannes is still doing Marine Johannes stuff. If they can get healthy down the stretch and stay in the playoff mix, nobody is going to want to face this team.
Indiana’s struggles have had nothing to do with health. Last season, Caitlin Clark’s prolonged absence was rough, but they sure did persevere. Kelsey Mitchell had an MVP-level scoring season, Aliyah Boston took it to a new level, and they cooked down the stretch before upsetting the Atlanta Dream in the playoffs and taking the champion Las Vegas Aces to five games in the semifinals.
Now that Clark is back, things have changed — and I’m not convinced that they’ve changed for the better. While the offense remains strong, the defense is notably worse; having an easy-to-attack defender in Clark has undone a lot of their hard work. Just look at Friday’s game: Indiana needed a whopping 75 combined points from Clark and Mitchell to get over the line, 110-107, against the lowly Storm.
They may look for some defensive reinforcements before the upcoming trade deadline, but to quote WNBA media legend Nekias Duncan, it’s time to press the “do better” button. Clark, Mitchell, Sophie Cunningham, and Monique Billings could all be doing a lot more on the defensive end of the floor. It can’t all be on the shoulders of Lexie Hull and Boston to get stops.
The injury report bears watching here. Fiebich and Sabally remain out for the Liberty, while Clark and Boston are managing injuries. Boston sat on Friday night while Clark played, and the opposite may be the case on Saturday. So make sure you get a full scope of the injury report before making a pick.
Liberty vs. Fever Pick, Best Bet
With the caveat that the injury report can change things, I’m intrigued by the Liberty in this game. They’re getting Ionescu healthier with each passing game, and the defense remains rock solid, even with Fiebich and Sabally sidelined. Clark’s possible absence tomorrow could change things. Still, I’m not sold that their defense can handle the Ionescu-Stewart-Jones trio. That’s going to cause problems that I don’t believe the Liberty can solve.
