Division leaders are set to clash this evening at Truist Park. The Rangers (49-47) don’t look the part of a World Series contender, but they currently lead the wide-open AL West. As for the Braves (55-40), a hot start has morphed into a stagnant summer. Still, Atlanta holds a 2.5-game lead over the Phillies for pole position in the NL East. Which of these two clubs will come out on top during Friday’s interleague matchup?
The Braves are favorites (-205) over the Rangers, with the over/under set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Texas and Atlanta on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rangers vs. Braves pick, best bet today
- Braves -1.5 – 1st 5 Innings (+124): Quantrill is a clear notch or two below Sale, giving Atlanta a massive edge tonight. Rather than buying a full game price, look for Atlanta to jump out to a commanding lead on Friday.
Rangers vs. Braves prediction, preview
Pitching has been a strength for the Rangers this season, with top-flight arms such as Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi in their rotation. With that being said, Texas’ pitching depth isn’t amazing by any means. It’ll be Cal Quantrill taking the mound on Friday. The veteran will be making his fifth start of the season and 20th appearance this evening. During that time, he’s recorded a 3.11 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 28 strikeouts (5.4 K/9). Despite a lack of whiffs, the Canadian has made up for it with stellar command (2.5 BB/9). Still, the long-term outlook for a pitcher that allows hard contact without generating whiffs isn’t great.
As previously mentioned, the Braves have looked sluggish recently following a red-hot start. That’s especially true at the plate; since June 1st, the team is 27th in runs scored (144). Still, there’s undeniable talent up and down this roster. The main catalyst is Matt Olson (135 wRC+), in the midst of another predictably good campaign. However, five regulars with a wRC+ above 100 are expected to take the field tonight.Atlanta has begun to turn things around, scoring 57 runs over its previous ten contests. That’s the third-best mark in the majors during that time.
As for the home team, Chris Sale will get the nod tonight. The former Cy Young winner, when healthy, remains one of the sport’s most intimidating mound presences. This season, he’s recorded a 2.20 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 117 strikeouts (10.7 K/9). The southpaw’s Savant page is a thing of beauty as well. He sits within the 80th percentile or better in average exit velocity (87.2 MPH), chase rate (35.4%), strikeout rate (29.0%) and walk rate (6.2%). To boot, Sale has been even better when pitching at home (1.55 ERA) than he has been on the road (2.79 ERA).
That’s a tall order for any lineup, especially tonight’s visitors. The Rangers are only averaging 4.16 runs per game, eighth-fewest in the majors. To make matters worse, Corey Seager is on the injured list due to lower-back inflammation. It’s worth noting that Texas has put up the league’s seventh-best OPS against left-handed pitching (.756). Still, Sale is no ordinary southpaw; runs will likely be at a premium for the Rangers tonight. Seven players on Texas’ active roster have previous experience against Sale. They’ve gone a combined five-for-27 at the plate (.185 BA) against the ten-time All-Star.
Best Bet: Braves -1.5 – 1st 5 Innings (+124)
The Braves deserve to be treated as big favorites, but there isn’t much juice on their full-game prices. Instead, the savvy play here might be backing an early lead for the home team. After all, there’s no reason to think the Rangers will be able to do much against Sale. In comparison, Atlanta’s offense is finally beginning to show signs of life after its prolonged slump. A middling arm like Quantrill shouldn’t be much of a problem tonight.
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