Helping to open up the four-game Friday night WNBA slate, the Seattle Storm will take on the Indiana Fever.
This is the second of three matchups between these two teams this season. They last met on May 17, with the Fever winning 89-78. Seattle covered the 11.5-point spread, and the game total stayed under the 176.5 line.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Fever enter as 9.5-point favorites and hold -455 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Storm hold +350 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 176.5.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Storm at Fever matchup.
Storm at Fever Preview
The Seattle Storm have dropped to a league-worst 6-20 record on the season. They are looking to snap a three-game losing streak and have dropped 16 of their last 19 games. Seattle has covered the spread at a better rate, covering in 14 of their 26 games played. The game total has also remained under in 14 of the 26 Storm matchups.
Natisha Hiedeman headlines the production for the Storm, posting averages of 15.8 points and 4.3 assists this season. Dominique Malonga is right behind her with 15.5 points and a team-high 8.2 rebounds per matchup. Rookie standout Flau’jae Johnson adds 13.1 points and 5.4 rebounds, while Awa Fam is the lone other player averaging in double figures with 11.1 points and 5.4 rebounds per matchup. Jade Melbourne and Zia Cooke also play key roles. Ezi Magbegor and Taina Mair will each miss tonight’s matchup.
The Storm are scoring 80.4 points per game, which ranks 14th out of the 15 WNBA teams. Seattle also ranks 13th in offensive rating, 14th in field-goal percentage, and 10th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 85.5 points per game, which ranks seventh in the league. The Storm also rank sixth in defensive rating, fourth in opponent field-goal percentage, and first in opponent three-point percentage.
The Indiana Fever have slipped to 14-10 on the season, which drops them to sixth place in the WNBA standings. They are looking to bounce back from their previous loss to the Golden State Valkyries, but have won four of their last six games. On the season, the Fever have gone 12-12 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 14 of their 24 games played.
Kelsey Mitchell headlines the production on the season, averaging 22.6 points and 3.0 assists per game. Caitlin Clark is not far behind with 19.7 points and a team-high 7.7 assists. Clark has battled a back injury this season, but is considered probable for tonight’s matchup. Aliyah Boston contributes 17.2 points and 8.7 rebounds, but is considered questionable with a right leg injury. Sophie Cunningham, Damiris Dantas, Monique Billings, Tyasha Harris, Myisha Hines-Allen, and Shatori Walker-Kimbrough also play key roles on the team.
Indiana leads the WNBA in scoring at 93.2 points per game. The Fever also rank first in offensive rating, third in pace, third in field-goal percentage, and second in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 89.0 points per game against the Fever, which ranks 11th in the league. Indiana also ranks ninth in defensive rating and ninth in opponent field-goal percentage, while allowing the fewest three-point attempts per game.
Storm at Fever Pick, Best Bet
In the first matchup between these two teams, the Fever cruised to an 89-78 win over the Storm. Indiana led for 95% of the matchup and extended the lead to as many as 20, even while shooting just 24% from beyond the three-point arc. The Fever were forced to lean on more of an interior attack, out rebounding the Storm 38-24 and outscoring them 50-30 in the paint. This was while Aliyah Boston was sidelined due to injury, as well. It is worth noting that the Storm dealt with injuries of their own, as Dominique Malonga, Ezi Magbegor, and Katie Lou Samuelson headlined the missing talent.
The outlook has not gotten better for the Storm as the season has progressed. Seattle’s offensive shortcomings have proven problematic, and this will especially be the case against as dominant an offensive team as the Fever. The biggest point of concern from the Fever’s perspective is the level of health of Caitlin Clark. The two-time All-Star has battled a back injury for several weeks and has failed to look like the best version of herself since returning to the floor. Across her past three games, Clark is averaging just 11.3 points, 5.0 assists and 4.0 turnovers while shooting 35.1% from the field and 15.8% from beyond the three-point arc.
Even with this being a legitimate concern, there is much more to like about this Fever squad, and expect their offense to perform at a level the Storm cannot quite match. Indiana is 8-5 straight up when playing at home this season, while the Storm are just 2-12 on the road. Seattle is also just 6-8 against the spread when playing on the road and is producing a -12.5 net rating, which ranks 14th in the league. In contrast, the Fever have a +7.5 net rating when playing at home.
There have been some reasons for optimism about this Storm team in recent weeks. The youthful roster has shown some encouraging flashes, and they provide a level of fight well beyond what their record indicates. But they struggled against this Fever team in the first matchup, and I expect several of the same weaknesses to be exploited. Even a slightly diminished version of Clark provides one of the better offensive engines in the league, and Indiana has the talent around her that means their outlook is not fully dependent on the superstar. Expect Seattle to compete at a high level, but for the Fever to gradually push the scoring to a level they cannot match. Back Indiana to cover the spread for the sixth time in the past eight games, and for the gap between these two teams to be larger than the 9.5-point spread indicates. Indiana has seven double digit victories this season and expect this matchup to be added to the list.
