This week’s UFC Fight Night features a spectacular Main Event between two former champions, Dricus Du Plessis and Kamaru Usman. Jared Cannonier faces Christian Leroy Duncan in the co-main event of this card. The Main Card for this event begins at 8:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+. This event takes place in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, at the Paycom Center, the home of the NBA’s Thunder.
Check out my best bets and full breakdown below ahead of this week’s UFC Fight Night.
Best Bets for UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
- Kamaru Usman Moneyline (+190): Even though this is Kamaru Usman’s first fight at 185 pounds in 21 months, regardless of his age, his overall skill set is better than Dricus Du Plessis’.
- Christian Leroy Duncan to Win by KO/TKO/DQ (+165): Christian Leroy Duncan has won four straight and should be able to find success against Jared Cannonier, who is 1-3 in his last four and is well past his prime.
- Tommy McMillen to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+100): Tommy McMillen appears to have what it takes to become a future title contender at Featherweight as he is a well-rounded fighter with a ton of charisma. If he unloads a high volume of strikes, Alberto Montes will likely struggle to keep up with his pace.
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman Best Bets Breakdown
Kamaru Usman Moneyline (+190)
After 13 months away, Usman is making his return to the Octagon against Du Plessis. Usman got back in the win column against Joaquin Buckley in his last fight in June 2025. Before that, Usman lost three consecutive fights from 2022 to 2023. This is Usman’s first fight at 185 pounds since October 2023 when he suffered a majority decision loss to Khamzat Chimaev.
This is Du Plessis’ first fight since he lost the Middleweight title to Chimaev at UFC 319 in August 2025. That was his first UFC loss and first defeat in nearly seven years. From January 2024 to February 2025, DDP won three straight title fights. This is a fascinating matchup, as the winner of this fight could very well determine the next challenger for the Middleweight title. Usman has always been a big welterweight, making the physical gap not too bad. Du Plessis is only one inch taller (6’1″ vs. 6’0″), while both fighters have the same standing reach (76″).
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Du Plessis is a -230 favorite with Usman being a +190 underdog. The over/under is set at 3.5 rounds, with the over at -200 and the under at +154. DDP averages 1.02 more significant strikes, but Usman has the edge in striking accuracy (51% vs. 48%) and absorbs fewer significant strikes (5.18 vs. 4.16). Also, although Du Plessis is skilled on the ground, Usman is the better wrestler. Usman lands 0.57 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and DDP’s takedown defense is only 34%. If we see the aggressive version of Usman, he will present an extremely tough challenge for Du Plessis. Getting Usman at +190 is an excellent value play considering his upside.
Christian Leroy Duncan to Win by KO/TKO/DQ (+165)
The co-main event of this card is also an intriguing contest as Jared Cannonier takes on rising star Christian Leroy Duncan in a three-round middleweight contest. Cannonier is 1-3 in his previous four contests and is coming off a loss against Michael “Venom” Page at UFC 319 in August 2025. His last win came in February 2025 against Gregory Rodrigues. Duncan has won four straight, with two of his last three coming by knockout. In March, CLD defeated Roman Dolidze by unanimous decision.
Cannonier seems to be past his prime, and it’s likely his struggles will continue against Duncan. CLD is the more accurate striker (57% vs. 49%), while landing more significant strikes per minute (4.43 vs. 4.42). Also, Duncan doesn’t get hit often, as he allows 2.59 significant strikes per minute.
Duncan is a -360 favorite with Cannonier being a +285 underdog. Since two of Duncan’s last three victories have come by knockout and four of his last six, I’m taking him to win by knockout at +165. Duncan’s athleticism and knockout power are the difference in this contest.
Tommy McMillen to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+100)
Tommy McMillen, the protege of former UFC Bantamweight Champion Sean O’Malley, opens up this main card against fellow elite prospect Alberto Montes. McMillen comes from the Red Hawk Academy in Arizona, which is led by Head Coach Tim Welch. McMillen is 10-0 with five submissions and four knockouts and has all the makings of a future superstar, as he is an elite finisher with a tremendous amount of confidence. Montes is 12-1 with eight finishes and has scored four straight submissions. He won his UFC debut at UFC 326 in March against Ricky Turcios.
In this contest, McMillen is a -166 favorite with Montes being a +140 underdog. Montes does his best work on the ground, but McMillen is the better all-around fighter as he is skilled everywhere. On paper, McMillen has the edge as he is five inches taller (6’0″ vs. 5’7″) with a five-inch reach advantage (74″ vs. 69″).
McMillen should be able to use his longer reach to keep Montes at range while picking him apart on the feet. Since Montes is also good on the ground, it is likely that McMillen will look for more success on the feet as he did in his previous contest. With McMillen winning nine of his 10 MMA fights by finish, getting him at +100 to win by KO/TKO/DQ or submission at +100 is my favorite play.
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