In a league as volatile as the WNBA, fortunes can change quickly, especially given the monumental offseason that was 2025-26, in which two expansion teams entered the league and nearly every roster saw significant turnover. The Phoenix Mercury arguably experienced the most tumult; they reached the WNBA Finals last season and languish near the bottom of the league through the first half of the 2026 season.
They’ll face a fellow bottom-feeder in the final game of Friday’s WNBA slate when they host the Connecticut Sun at 10:10 p.m. ET. The Sun also went through an eventful offseason, although their fortunes did not change; they will play one final season in Connecticut before becoming the Houston Comets next summer.
For tonight’s game, Aneesah Morrow (return to play conditioning) is doubtful for the Sun, while Natasha Mack (foot) is doubtful for the Mercury and Sami Whitcomb (knee) is questionable.
Phoenix is a 4.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-185 Moneyline), with the total set at 163.5 points. Connecticut is +154 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s celestial-themed affair and offer a prediction.
Sun at Mercury Best Bet
Connecticut Sun +4.5 (-112): The Sun are a much better team without Morrow, whose 51.9% accuracy within five feet overshadows her strengths elsewhere, and Phoenix has been much worse without Mack. Connecticut has excellent interior play, but it can’t shoot, and that’ll make all the difference.
Sun at Mercury prediction, pick
Given that the Mercury lost All-Star Satou Sabally in the offseason after she took a pay cut to play with the New York Liberty, it isn’t a surprise that they took a step back, but to be one of the worst teams in the league couldn’t have been foreseen. Alas, as good as Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper have been, DeWanna Bonner has shown some signs of her age (38) and a combination of injuries and overseas contract obligations have limited Monique Akoa Makani to 14 games. As a result of such chaos, Phoenix ranks 11th in offensive rating, 12th in defensive rating, and 11th in net rating. Meanwhile, the Sun’s struggles were more expected, especially given the age of their roster (only two players are older than 25), the injuries that have limited Leïla Lacan and Brittney Griner to a combined 29 games, and their overall lack of high-level talent. Connecticut ranks 14th on offense, 10th on defense, and dead last in net rating, and its 6-18 record only surpasses the Seattle Storm’s. To be fair, the Sun have been 9.6 points per 100 possessions better without Morrow, and the Mercury have been 10.8 points per 100 possessions worse without Mack.
Connecticut is one of the most post-oriented teams in the league, attempting the fourth-most shots per game inside the restricted area, though it’s also been the fourth-least accurate finishing team. The Sun could be better without Morrow, who, despite leading the team with 5.0 attempts per game within five feet, is the second-least efficient high-volume finisher in the league (51.9%).By contrast, while Phoenix has attempted relatively few close-range shots, it’s been efficient on those looks, and Mack is a relatively low-volume finisher. The Mercury have been the slightly better rim-protecting team, allowing 4.2 fewer restricted-area tries per game, but opponents have shot 2.3 percentage points less accurately against Connecticut. All in all, the Sun have out-scored their opponents 3.1 points per game in the paint, while Phoenix has been out-scored by 0.8 points per game.
Neither of these teams has been very good on the glass, as both have snagged fewer than 50% of all available rebounds, but the Mercury will definitely miss Mack, who ranks 12th in rebounds per game and third in rebounding percentage. Connecticut should have the overall advantage on the boards, especially since it’s been comparatively worse at defensive rebounding and Mack is especially effective on the offensive glass. The transition battle should be about even, since the Sun have been slightly better at getting back and Phoenix has more effectively turned its fast-break opportunities into buckets. The Mercury have been far more disciplined, and they’ve been relatively sharp from the charity stripe, allowing them to take advantage of Connecticut’s foul-prone nature.
One critical difference: Phoenix can shoot, and the Sun can’t. Connecticut attempts just 18.1 three-pointers per game, the fewest in the league, and connects at the lowest rate. On the other hand, the Mercury also attempt comparatively few threes (just 24.8 per game), but they’ve made one-third of them. There’s also more reason to suggest that Phoenix is due to benefit from shooting luck than the Sun, as of their four shooters attempting at least four threes per game, three of them have made fewer than 30% of their looks despite two of those players previously enjoying seasons north of 40%. Of Connecticut’s slumping shooters, only Kennedy Burke has much of a track record of shooting success at the WNBA level. Neither of these teams has been good at defending opposing shooters; opponents have shot 37.5% against the Mercury and 35.8% against the Sun.
Connecticut has been so awful on the road (2-8 with a negative-13.6 net rating) that I’ll back Phoenix to pull out the win eventually, but penetrating the paint at will against a team that struggles to protect the rim and will be without its joint-tallest player is a winning strategy. The Sun don’t shoot well enough to take advantage of the Mercury’s sometimes lackluster perimeter defense, so while they’ll cover the spread, they’ll fall just short in the end.
