Two teams on the fringes of the American League playoff picture are set to meet on Friday. The Orioles (46-51) have struggled to keep pace in the AL East. However, Baltimore remains a factor in the chase for a wild card spot. As for the Astros (47-51), a late first half surge has them just _ games out of the division lead. Now, Houston will attempt to build on their momentum with a three-game set at home. Which side will get the second half started on a high note tonight?
The Astros are favorites (-117) over the Orioles, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Baltimore and Houston on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Orioles vs. Astros pick, best bet today
- Astros ML (-117): These are two evenly-matched squads heading into Friday’s matchup. However, the Astros have an edge simply due to the presence of Alvarez. In addition, Kremer’s struggles on the road could spell trouble against an above-average Houston lineup. In comparison, Baltimore hasn’t played well away from Camden Yards.
Orioles vs. Astros prediction, preview
Dean Kremer gets the nod for Baltimore tonight. At this point in his career, what you see is what you get from the 30-year-old. He’s not a standout hurler, but the righty is no slouch either. Over 22.0 innings this season (four starts), he’s delivered a 4.09 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 24 strikeouts (9.8 K/9). That’s a small sample size, but it’s well in line with Kremer’s career numbers (4.26 ERA, 1.28 WHIP). Unsurprisingly, the crafty veteran has been at his best when it comes to limiting walks. He’s currently put up a career-best 1.6 BB/9 ratio. However, middling fastball velocity (92.9 MPH) and a lackluster opponent barrel rate (12.1%) should give Baltimore fans cause for concern.
Baltimore will face a significant challenge this evening against one of the sport’s better lineups. In many ways, Houston’s offense has been a one-man show; Yordan Alvarez is absolutely carrying the Astros. The MVP candidate is slashing .318/.426/.633 with an American League-best 31 home runs and 70 RBIs. In addition, the slugger leads all of baseball with a 193 OPS+ and 221 total bases. Kremer has allowed a career .439 slugging percentage against left-handed batters. The rest of this Astros lineup isn’t a pushover, either. The team is 11th in runs scored (449), third in home runs (133) and eighth in slugging percentage (.413). It’s worth noting that Kremer had a dismal 5.30 ERA on the road last season.
It’ll be Peter Lambert toeing the slab for Houston in this one. On an otherwise subpar pitching staff, the fifth-year pro has been a welcome addition. Through 86.0 innings of work (15 starts), he’s accounted for a 3.14 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 81 strikeouts (8.5 K/9). It doesn’t seem to be a fluke; the right-hander’s xERA (3.38) and xBA (.204) are within the top 74th percentile among qualified starters. There isn’t anything Lambert does exceptionally well, but there’s nothing that stands out as a glaring weakness, either. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his previous seven appearances coming into today’s contest.
The Orioles, for all their inconsistency, are a dangerous offense in their own right. They sit right behind the Astros with baseball’s 12th-most runs scored (447). The team has also posted the sport’s 12th-most home runs (117) and 13th-best slugging percentage (.401). Offseason acquisition Pete Alonso (129 wRC+) has been a big part of that effort. However, it’s worth noting that the O’s are better at home (4.85 runs per game) than they are on the road (4.32). When Lambert last faced Baltimore, back on April 30th at Camden Yards, he delivered a decent 4.1-inning, two-run performance.
Best Bet: Astros ML (-117)
Both of these teams are carried by above-average lineups and superstar sluggers. The biggest difference is that the Astros wield the best player on the field in Alvarez and the best pitcher in Lambert. In addition, the Orioles have posted a terrible 18-26 record when playing on the road. Back a more well-rounded Houston squad tonight at Daikin Park.
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