Arizona’s four-game winning streak and Los Angeles sweep created the louder second-half entrance. St. Louis arrived 50-45, one game ahead of Arizona and carrying six losses in nine games. Those records place both clubs inside the National League’s crowded wild-card argument. Arizona went 6-4 before the break, batting .226 with 11 homers and 49 runs. St. Louis went 4-6, batting .183 with 10 homers and only 57 hits. Yet the Cardinals produced a 45% hard-contact rate, compared with Arizona’s 38%. Arizona’s surge carried better sequencing; St. Louis’ slump concealed better contact. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the St. Louis Cardinals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals prediction, preview
Kelly is the reason that distinction matters. His 5.38 ERA looks poor, but his 5.90 FIP and 7.44 expected ERA look worse. He owns a 1.51 WHIP, 14.4% strikeout rate and 1.92 home runs allowed per nine innings. At Chase Field, Kelly has allowed a 1.026 OPS while posting a 7.44 ERA. His four-seamer has yielded a .337 average and .747 slugging percentage. His cutter sits at .400 and .782, while his sinker sits at .350 and .600. Kelly’s 2.25 July ERA therefore demands skepticism. He allowed 16 baserunners and two homers across 12 innings despite surrendering only three earned runs. His recent called-strike-plus-whiff rate rose only from 24.1% to 24.7%. The results improved far more than the underlying pitching.
St. Louis brings three hitters with the right combination of form, force and plate control. Walker averaged 97.5 mph across his recent contact, reaching 115 mph and producing 57% hard contact. Twenty percent of his balls in play combined dangerous launch angles with premium exit velocity. He also struck out in 18% of appearances while reaching safely without contact in 16%. Burleson averaged 92.7 mph, generated 52% hard contact and produced a .369 expected offensive mark. His last five games were louder: 97.5 mph, 60% hard contact and 33% premium contact. Burleson also carries a .940 OPS against right-handed pitching. Wetherholt added a 90 mph average, 53% hard contact and a .354 expected mark. He missed only 12.7% of swings and reached safely without contact in 14% of appearances. Those three should force Kelly into traffic before his better secondary pitches can control counts.
McGreevy supplies the strongest reason to avoid a simple game over. His 3.01 ERA masks a 4.14 FIP, 5.34 expected ERA and modest 16.5% strikeout rate. However, his last three starts produced a 1.47 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 13 strikeouts and three walks. He increased cutter usage from 11.6% to 15.1%, while its swing-miss rate jumped from 14.5% to 31.8%. His four-seam velocity also climbed half a mile per hour. Arizona’s recent stars enter without equivalent support. Carroll struck out in 30% of recent appearances, produced no premium contact and carried a .238 expected mark. Marte’s five-game exit velocity fell to 79.8 mph, with 19% hard contact and a .172 expected mark. Moreno’s .395 average carries better support, although he produced no premium contact during that window. McGreevy’s 4.20 road ERA and fourth-inning 6.50 ERA prevent complete comfort.
Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet
Late innings sharply change the scoring equation. Arizona’s bullpen completed 9⅔ scoreless innings before the break, including six hitless innings during Sunday’s finale. Jonathan Loáisiga held recent opponents to a .213 expected mark, while Kevin Ginkel posted .219. Ryan Thompson reached .249, and Paul Sewald reached .255 despite allowing dangerous aerial contact. Every principal Arizona reliever enters rested. St. Louis’ relief profile contains more volatility. Ryne Stanek’s recent expected mark was .280, compared with .314 for Riley O’Brien and .364 for JoJo Romero. That difference favors Arizona after Kelly leaves. The closed roof eliminates wind and heat, leaving pitching execution as the environmental variable. Walker’s Derby workload adds narrative interest, but two recovery days reduce its practical importance.
The total of nine asks both offenses to beat rested bullpens after exploiting vulnerable starters. That path exists, but Arizona’s recent contact and McGreevy’s improved cutter make it unnecessarily broad. St. Louis’ team total isolates Kelly’s home struggles and the game’s strongest cluster of current hitters. Over 4.5 at −105 requires a 51.2% hit rate. My projection places the Cardinals near 5.3 runs, giving the over roughly a 54% probability. That estimate implies a fair price around −117, leaving modest value beneath the −120 ceiling. Kelly should allow three or four runs before Arizona’s bullpen assumes control. St. Louis can find the fifth run against middle relief, with Walker and Burleson driving the damage.
Best bet: Cardinals team total over 4.5 at −105.
Projected score: Cardinals six, Diamondbacks four.
Best bet: Cardinals TT o4.5 runs (-115) at Diamondbacks
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