The race for the eighth seed in the WNBA playoffs is hotly contested. Currently, the Washington Mystics hold the spot, but the Portland Fire are nipping at their heels. To say this game has huge playoff implications for both teams would be an understatement, and they’ll fight hard to pull out the win.
Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET. The Mystics are a 5.5-point home favorite with -225 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. A Fire upset is priced at +185, with the game total set at O/U 163.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Fire-Mystics game.
Fire vs. Mystics Preview
The Fire continues to be frustratingly inconsistent. Just look at their last three games: a tight loss to the Aces, an upset win over the Atlanta Dream, and a crushing loss to the league-worst Connecticut Sun. Figuring out what this team will do on a nightly basis is awfully difficult.
One thing you can count on: they won’t play defense. Portland comes into this game 14th in defensive rating, and it boils down to struggles in the paint. The Fire ranks in the bottom three of the WNBA in rebounding, two-point percentage allowed, and free throws allowed. Getting consistently out-rebounded, fouling constantly, and offering little rim protection is a pretty brutal formula for winning in this league. With some of their scorers, like Bridget Carleton and Sarah Ashlee Barker, cooling off, they can’t keep pace with opposing offenses. They’re going to have to figure out a new formula, or they can kiss their playoff hopes goodbye.
Washington continues to impress this season. Despite having the youngest team in WNBA history, they’ve won four of their last five games and sit as the seventh seed at 12-10. Their starting lineup is truly beginning to gel together. Sonia Citron is a skilled two-way force, Kiki Iriafen and Shakira Austin thrive in the paint on both ends of the floor, and Michaela Onyenwere has been an excellent floor spacer. The weakness so far has been Georgia Amoore’s lack of scoring, but since she can be a great distributor, it works.
The bench lineup has been an issue, but their five rotation mainstays off the bench are all rookies, so the struggles are understandable. Cotie McMahon has been an interesting wing presence for the team, and they can throw out a lot of size in former UCLA teammates Lauren Betts and Angela Dugalić. With all this inexperience on the roster, it’s incredible that head coach Sydney Johnson has coached the league’s third-best offense out of this team.
On paper, it’s a fascinating clash of styles and roster balances. In their first match—a historic four-overtime Mystics win—it was Washington’s starting lineup that carried the load. In contrast, Portland thoroughly won the bench battle. But Portland’s inability to defend Iriafen, Citron, and Onyenwere did them in. This time around, can Washington press the same buttons and win in the paint while surviving the bench minutes? Or will Portland tip the scales in their favor and get revenge?
Fire vs. Mystics Pick, Best Bet
The first time around, this one was as close as close gets. This time, the better team will show itself. Portland’s inability to protect the paint is a huge issue when facing a team with this much skill and size. Washington’s offense gets a big boost against a defense this poor, and Portland doesn’t have the offensive talent to overcome this excellent defense. This should be a statement win for the Mystics, pushing them closer to the postseason.
