We’ve got a 14-game slate for Friday’s MLB action.
Let’s find some studs and values for your MLB DFS lineups on DraftKings. This article was written before lineups were announced.
Make your DraftKings MLB DFS picks here: MLB $150K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Troy Melton, Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels ($8,700) — Melton always turns my brain into a pretzel when on the slate. He’s young, averages 96 mph on the fastball, doesn’t walk many batters, limits barrels — and is posting a 1.82 ERA through 49.1 innings. But, but, but… his FIP is much higher at 4.07, as the BABIP is only .172 while the strand rate is 96.3%. As a result, the little devil on my left shoulder constantly whispers, “He’s due for regression… He’s going to get lit up.” Over the last four starts? Melton has posted 31, 26.4, 22.3 and 22.5 FPTS. He likely won’t be this good the rest of the season, but there have been many pitchers in the past who have out-pitched the numbers. Now, could he get blasted in this one? Sure. But the Angels strike out at the highest rate in MLB and rank 20th in wRC+.
Value
Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Guardians ($7,200) — Jones is also a young pitcher who averages 98.6 mph on the fastball. The strikeout rate is 27.1%, and the 3.67 FIP is lower than his 4.37 ERA. That said, his first seven starts of the season were meh, finishing with double-digit FPTS only three times while pitching at least five innings only once. He’s thrown over 80 pitches in a start just one time as well. In his most recent outing, though, Jones threw six perfect innings with eight strikeouts against a tough Braves squad. However, his pitch count was only 77. A ceiling game will likely be difficult to achieve, but the matchup balances some of that risk. The Guardians are dead last in ISO and 25th in wRC+.
INFIELD
Stud
T.J. Rumfield, Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds ($4,000) — I usually eschew Rumfield because the average exit velocity is only 83.8 mph with a 68.9 mph bat speed. That said, he’s got 12 home runs, 42 runs, and 47 RBIs in 384 plate appearances. The walk rate is 10.4% while the strikeout rate is only 13.8%. He’s also batting cleanup most nights. What most interests me on this day, though, is the Red pitching staff. The bullpen is one of the worst in the league, posting the second-highest FIP at 5.12. Friday’s starter, Brady Singer, has been prone to getting lit up, as well. He owns a 5.61 FIP and has allowed 20 home runs in 89.2 innings. Now he gets to pitch at Coors Field. Yippeee for Reds fans, but YIPPEEE!!! for Rockies fans. Fourteen of the home runs he’s allowed have been hit by lefties, while 11 of Rumfield’s homers have come against righties. He heads into Friday with a 142 wRC+ and a .223 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Value
Ryan McMahon, New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers ($2,300) — McMahon is not a very good hitter, with a .214 batting average and a 32% strikeout rate. The average exit velocity is a respectable 90.9 mph, though, with an 11.1% barrel rate and 74.8 mph bat speed. Against right-handed pitching, he owns a .194 ISO with all nine of his homers. Roki Sasaki had a four-start heater at the end of May — the rest of his season has been vomit-inducing. Ten of his 19 home runs allowed have come off the bat of a lefty, while Sasaki has posted an 11.4% K-BB% and a 5.50 FIP against them.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Cole Carrigg, Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds ($4,200) — Yup, we’re stacking against Singer and the Reds bullpen at Coors Field. Carrigg has a .273/.356/.515 slash in 119 plate appearances. The walk rate is 10.9%, the strikeout rate is 21.8%, and the ISO is .242. The average exit velocity is only 85.9 mph, but Carrigg’s bat speed is 73.5 mph. The switch-hitter is good from both sides of the plate, but his .286 ISO and 145 wRC+ against righties trump his 92 wRC+ and .200 ISO against southpaws.
Value
Alan Roden, Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs ($2,200) — Roden was called up five games ago. He hasn’t been great with a .214/.313/.214 slash in 16 plate appearances, but he owns an impressive 12.5% walk rate and an 18.8% strikeout rate. In addition, the average exit velocity is 92.1 mph with a 9.1% barrel rate. He’s cheap and gets to face Colin Rea, who has a 7.8% K-BB% and a 4.22 FIP against lefties.
