Closing down tonight’s three-game WNBA slate, the Golden State Valkyries will take on the Indiana Fever. This is the third matchup between these two teams this season, with each side picking up a victory to this point.
The Fever enter tonight’s game as 1.5-point favorites and hold -125 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Valkyries hold +105 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 166.5 points.
You can check out the full pick and prediction for this matchup here, but this article will look at my top player prop picks for the WNBA matchup. Here are my three favorite prop bets for this Valkyries at Fever matchup.
Caitlin Clark Under 15.5 Points (-110)
Caitlin Clark remains on the shortlist of the most talented players in the WNBA, but she has been notably bothered by a back issue as of late. The two-time All-Star is averaging 20.1 points and 7.8 assists on the year and has scored over 15.5 points in 15 of her 19 games played. However, Clark made her return from an absence of over two weeks to play in the past two matchups. She played just 15:39 and 24:25 minutes of action in these two games since returning, and she is still expected to be on a minutes limit tonight. The former Rookie of the Year has scored nine and 12 points in these two games while shooting a collective 9-for-23 from the field and 2-for-11 on three-point attempts.
This will not be a matchup to solve this, as Golden State enters with a strong defense. The Valkyries are holding teams to the fewest points per game in the WNBA at just 76.2 points per contest. They also lead the league in defensive rating, rank second in opponent field-goal percentage and allow the third-fewest perimeter attempts per matchup. Golden State also plays at the slowest pace in the league, which will slow the number of offensive chances and is a significant contrast to the style Clark likes to play.
Expect this to be a tough matchup for the Fever star as she continues to battle back to 100% herself physically. Clark has played fewer than 25 minutes in three straight games, been held to under 15.5 points in each, and still doesn’t look like herself physically. This number is a bit too high based on the context of the matchup, so back Clark to fall short.
Janelle Salaün Over 13.5 Points (-111)
It has been an impressive season for Janelle Salaün in her second year in the WNBA. Last year’s All-Rookie team member is playing just 22.8 minutes per game off the bench, but she is still posting averages of 13.0 points and 4.1 rebounds. She is shooting an impressive 39.7% from beyond the three-point arc on 6.5 perimeter shots per game.
Salaün has seen her scoring responsibility grow as the season has progressed. She is coming off 16 points in the previous game and scored a season-high 26 points in the game before this. Salaün also poured in 19 points against the Fever in the previous matchup between these two teams. On the season, the Valkyries standout has scored over 13.5 points in 11 games.
From a matchup perspective, the Fever rank 11th in opponent points allowed at 89.0 per matchup. Indiana does a nice job chasing opponents off the three-point line, giving up the fewest perimeter shots per game, but Salaün is an intriguing blend of size and athleticism that I expect to be a difference-maker in this matchup. She has attempted 10+ field goals in three straight games after failing to reach this total in seven of the eight games before this. Count on her continuing to play in attack mode and cementing herself as a foundational part of the Valkyries’ future. Back Salaün to record over 13.5 points for the third straight game and 12th time this season with no answer for her unique skillset on this Fever roster.
Aliyah Boston to Record a Double-Double (+127)
A major X-factor for this matchup is Aliyah Boston. The three-time All-Star is posting averages of 17.3 points and 8.8 rebounds per game on the season. She ranks in the top five in the WNBA in rebounding rate and has a chance to dominate this matchup. Golden State is holding teams to the second-worst field-goal percentage, which should make for plenty of rebounding chances. The Valkyries also rank 10th in the league in rebounds per game and are giving up 7.8 offensive rebounds per game.
Boston has scaled up her rebounding production as of late, pulling in 9.7 boards per game across her past 12 matchups. She has seven double-doubles on the season, including six of her past 12. The standard rebounding prop is set at 9.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook for this matchup, with the odds for the over currently favored at +105.
While I am obviously in favor of this prop as well, getting an additional boost with the double-double lines feels like the most lucrative way to back this prop market. Boston has scored 10+ points in 18 of her 21 games played this season, and she also registered a season-high 16 rebounds against the Valkyries during one of the previous matchups. Expect the 6-foot-5 forward to make it a priority to establish position and make a strong impact on the glass to pick up her eighth double-double of the season.
