North Wilkesboro returns to the Cup Series for the first points-paying race in decades. The short, flat track punishes mistakes and rewards clean speed, and three drivers stand out above the rest. Here are the top bets for the Window World 450 at North Wilkesboro.
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NASCAR Best Bets for the 2026 Window World 450
Race Winner — Joey Logano (+1000)
The No. 22 Team Penske Ford is backed by the stats. Logano may not be long for the Cup Series, but his career isn’t over yet. At Phoenix in the spring, Logano posted a 0.989 cPOMS (Continuously Graded Percentage of Maximum Speed) with a 3.7 wARP (weighted average running position). Logano carried that speed to the next short, flat track — Martinsville — with a 0.988 cPOMS and 4.5 wARP. His North Wilkesboro numbers are even better. Logano registered a 0.996 cPOMS and 1.2 wARP in 2025 and a 0.990 cPOMS and 1.0 wARP in 2024.
Race Winner — Denny Hamlin (+425)
North Wilkesboro is straightforward. Who’s hot? Who runs well at North Wilkesboro and the similar short, flat tracks? It’s Hamlin. It’s always Hamlin. His track history isn’t definitive — no one’s North Wilkesboro numbers can be trusted with only three Cup Series races, exhibitions at that, at the legendary grassroots track. Two of Hamlin’s three races have been so-so. That’s been true for most drivers at North Wilkesboro — starting and finishing in the same position has been the tradition at this hard-to-pass track. While two didn’t go his way, he finished runner-up in the 2024 All-Star race and registered the second-best cPOMS and wARP.
Race Winner — Bubba Wallace (+3500)
The NASCAR summer schedule is best described as random. The racing style changes every week. The Cup Series superstars still dominate the one-off tracks in July, but an outsider can sneak away with a win. On the surface, North Wilkesboro is a short, flat track. The big teams dominate this type of track. On the other hand, this is the first non-exhibition race at the historic short track in the North Carolina Piedmont.
The competition will be tough, but a Toyota is likely to be on top. If Hamlin’s odds aren’t attractive enough, Wallace is a worthy wager. Wallace finished second in the 2023 All-Star Race and sixth in 2024.
