Wednesday’s WNBA slate ends with a banger of a matchup. The Golden State Valkyries are in the running for the top overall seed in the WNBA, while the Indiana Fever are looking to make noise in the playoff race down the stretch. It’s a potential preview of a first-round playoff matchup, and the bad blood is already developing between these teams.
Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET. The Fever are a 2.5-point home favorite with -142 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. A Valkyries upset is priced at +120, with the game total set at O/U 168.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Valkyries-Fever game.
Valkyries vs. Fever Preview
Golden State is streaking into the All-Star break. On a seven-game winning streak, the Valks went from a solid playoff team to a serious contender for the top of the league. They’re doing it with their defense. Golden State leads the league in defensive rating and has been the best two-point defense in basketball despite their true lack of size. Their perimeter defense is the best in basketball, and no team makes crisper rotations when the ball is moving. Between Kiah Stokes and Laeticia Amihere, they have strong rim protection and can break you with their small-ball looks.
Gabby Williams has been the key to it all. She has stepped admirably into the leading scorer role while sacrificing none of her defensive effort. Alongside Veronica Burton, the two have been the legitimate star duo that Golden State sorely needed to take the next step. With those two cooking and the rest of the team bombing threes while defending their tails off, they’ve made life extremely hard on their opponents.
Indiana’s season has been largely the same as Golden State’s, but they’ve gotten here in a much different way. The Fever are tops in the league in offense, driven by elite efficiency: Indiana ranks among the top four in percentages from outside the arc, inside the arc, and from three-point range. It’s a deadly attack balanced between Caitlin Clark (the top playmaker), Kelsey Mitchell (the top scorer), and Aliyah Boston (the top paint presence).
The problem for Indiana has been the defense. Aliyah Boston is a legitimate DPOY-level presence, but outside of her, things are tough. There’s not much defense coming from the Clark-Mitchell backcourt. Monique Billings hasn’t fit in as well as they hoped on that end. Lexie Hull is more than capable of guarding top options, but when there are so many non-defenders on the floor with her, that impact is lessened. Even if the Fever can find a way to go from below average defensively to average, that would make a huge difference for their playoff outlook, but it’s going to require effort from a lot of their most important players.
So much of this matchup comes down to the three-point shooting. Golden State has the best perimeter attack in the league; can the Fever make the right rotations to deny the Valkyries’ shooters easy looks? On the other side of the floor, can Indiana rely on the outside shot when Golden State’s tough defense is keeping them locked up in the paint? Turnovers will play a key role as well; Golden State is one of the best teams when it comes to ball security, while the Fever tend to fling the ball everywhere.
Valkyries vs. Fever Pick, Best Bet
Sometimes, it’s as simple as the better team winning. Golden State is hot and playing excellent basketball. I’d wait until the injury report is officially released, as Gabby Williams is listed as questionable, but I’m quite certain the Valkyries are a significant value at plus money against an inferior team that they know how to defend.
