Last season, the Golden State Valkyries made history. None of the six expansion teams added since 2000 had made the playoffs until the Valkyries did last season, and in each of the seasons in which there was an expansion, a new franchise finished with the league’s worst record. The Toronto Tempo or Portland Fire could follow suit this season; both are just two games behind the final playoff spot just past the midway point in the regular season.
Toronto will have a chance to make up some ground tonight at 7:10 p.m. ET, when it hosts the Washington Mystics. The Mystics currently hold the eighth seed at 11-10.
Washington should be completely healthy, but the Tempo have some injury issues. Temi Fagbénlé (concussion), Kiki Rice (ankle), and Brittney Sykes (foot) are all out.
Thanks in part to the Tempo’s injury issues, the Mystics are 1.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-130 Moneyline), with the total set at 172.5 points. Toronto is +110 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s cross-border battle and offer a prediction.
Mystics at Tempo Best Bet
Washington Mystics -1.5 (-118): Washington loves to operate in the paint, and the Tempo have been one of the worst interior defending teams in the league. Toronto’s injury issues have also cut into its depth, and losing rookie Kiki Rice and point guard Brittany Sykes have especially hurt.
Mystics at Tempo prediction, pick
Just as the 2026 season has been an impressive first campaign for the Tempo, it’s also a huge bounce-back for Washington, which missed the playoffs last season. What the Mystics have lacked offensively, ranking dead last in offensive rating, they’ve made up for on defense, posting the third-best mark on that side of the ball. In Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen, a pair of 22-year-olds who have been All-Stars in both of their pro seasons, Washington has one of the best young two-way duos in the league. Toronto, meanwhile, has taken the opposite approach; the Tempo have had the sixth-best offense in the league but the third-worst defense, and their All-Star, Marina Mabrey, has amassed 1.0 defensive win shares in a season only once. Of Toronto’s absences, Rice’s could hurt the most, as it has been 12.5 points per 100 possessions worse without its rookie on the court and has gone just 5-11 since she last played on June 3.
Washington’s Plan A is to get to the rim, as it ranks fourth league-wide in restricted area tries and fifth in non-restricted paint shots, while the Tempo have attempted fewer floaters than any other team in the league and merely rank near the middle of the pack in layups. The Mystics should find success with that strategy; Toronto has given up the most layup attempts in the league and conceded the fifth-highest percentage on such shots, and it’s hard to imagine its defense being significantly better without Sykes, a four-time All-Defensive honoree, and Fagbénlé, an imposing interior presence at six-foot-five. Washington has been much stronger defensively, giving up the fifth-lowest accuracy on the fourth-fewest attempts per game within the restricted area, and while it’s been much more gettable from floater range, that isn’t part of the Tempo’s scheme. For the season, the Mystics have outscored their opponents by 4.5 points per game in the paint, while Toronto has been outscored by 7.1 points per game.
Washington should also be able to dominate the rebounding battle, as it ranks fourth in rebounding percentage this season and the Tempo dead last, snagging just 45.4% of all available rebounds in the last four games since Fagbénlé went down. In particular, the Mystics have been an excellent offensive rebounding team and Toronto the second-worst defensive rebounding team, so all the extra possessions should play in their favor. However, the Tempo have been a much better transition team, ranking second in fast break points per game while Washington ranks last. They’ve been much better both at taking care of the ball and at getting back defensively, though they’ve done a poor job handling the ball since losing Sykes. Both of these teams are relatively foul-prone, but the Mystics have been the best at drawing fouls.
Toronto will have to make up the deficit with its three-point shooting. As is typical of a Sandy Brondello offense, the Tempo attempt the third-most three-pointers in the league and have been the third-most accurate on such shots. Isabelle Harrison, Mabrey, and Maria Conde all rank among the top 20 in three-point percentage among qualified players, and while it’s a new aspect of Harrison’s game, Mabrey has long been a respected shooter. Meanwhile, Washington has both attempted and made threes at the second-lowest rate, and of its three most active shooters, only Michaela Onyenwere has even shot north of 30%, though Citron (a 44.5% three-point shooter last season) is certainly in line for a bounce-back. Both teams have been similarly sharp defensively; the Mystics have limited opponents to the fourth-lowest percentage from deep, while the Tempo have allowed the fifth-lowest mark.
This game largely depends on how many open threes Toronto will be able to generate, as well as how raucous its home crowd can be. In the end, though, Washington is better-sorted to take advantage of the Tempo’s biggest weakness than vice verse, and their interior dominance should play especially well. Toronto has missed Sykes’ steady playmaking since she went down, and its injuries significantly hurt its depth, especially if starting center Laura Juškaitė ends up in foul trouble.
