No team has won back-to-back World Cups since Brazil did so in 1958 and 1962, but Argentina is just two wins away from joining its continental counterparts in that elite company. Lionel Messi, who was dejected enough to briefly retire from the national team after defeats in the 2014 World Cup and the 2015 and 2016 Copa América finals, could end his international career as a two-time World Cup winner and the all-time leading goal scorer and assister in the competition.
It won’t be easy, though. For the first time ever, the four highest-ranked nations have advanced to the semifinals, and to earn their place in the final, the Albiceleste will have to take down England. The winner will face either France or Spain, who played after this writing on Tuesday, and the loser will compete against the other in the bronze final on Saturday.
The Three Lions are +165 favorites to win in regular time (-135 to advance to the final) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Argentina is +200 (+110 to advance). There are +190 odds that the teams will be level after 90 minutes.
Below, I’ll break down this all-important contest and provide my favorite bet.
England vs. Argentina Best Bet:
- Both Teams to Score (90 Mins) – Yes (-115): Neither team’s defense has been perfect, as Bukayo Saka and Anthony Gordon should pose problems for Argentina’s slow wing-backs and I’m not sure there’s a defender on the planet capable of handling Lionel Messi. Jordan Pickford and Emiliano Martínez both have a negative goals-prevented figure.
England vs. Argentina prediction, pick
Neither team has been incredibly convincing in the knockout stages of this tournament so far, but ugly wins are wins nonetheless. After each topped its group (the defending champions somewhat more convincingly), all three of both teams’ knockout fixtures were decided by one goal or fewer at the end of regular time. The Albiceleste needed extra time to take down Cape Verde, a miraculous last-minute comeback against Egypt to send the Pharaohs home, and two goals late in extra time to defeat Switzerland. By contrast, England’s route has been tougher, but it has won in similar fashion, losing to DR Congo until the 76th minute, surviving a late onslaught of Mexican crosses, and finding a winner early in extra time against Norway. Both teams are arguably lucky to be in this position, but the next 90 minutes (plus potential extra time) are all that matter now.
The Three Lions have gotten better as the tournament has gone on, and they have one of the most well-balanced squads. Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane are the only duo with at least six goals apiece, and Bellingham has scored twice in each of his past two matches. Anthony Gordon and Bukayo Saka have emerged as the preferred wing duo, contributing three assists each. All in all, England has managed the fewest expected goals per match of any remaining team, but it’s been clinical, managing the second-most shots on target per match and out-pacing both Les Bleus and La Roja by goals minus expected goals. The Three Lions have also been more accurate with their passes than France and have the highest cross completion rate of any team remaining. Defensively, England has been a mixed bag; it has allowed the most goals and expected goals of any semifinalist while allowing shots in the box at the highest rate, but it’s one of just two teams in the tournament (regardless of elimination stage) to rank in the top 15 in both ground and aerial duel win rates. Individually, both Marc Guéhi and Ezri Konsa rank in the top 50 in ground duel win rate. They don’t press often, but as a result, they don’t get exposed; among the semifinalists, only the Three Lions and Spain have yet to allow a goal via fast break. England has also been the second-most disciplined semifinalist while drawing the most fouls, and it’s been pretty strong from set pieces. Jordan Pickford could be the weakest goalie remaining, but he’s done his job when called upon.
Argentina, meanwhile, is the Messi show. Sure, the Albiceleste have gotten some contributions from his supporting cast, as Alexis Mac Allister, Lisandro Martínez, Enzo Fernández, Cristian Romero, Julián Álvarez, and Giovani Lo Celso have each scored once and Lautaro Martínez has netted twice, but Messi (eight goals and two assists) is the offensive fulcrum of his country even at the age of 39. Thanks in part to his singular brilliance — he leads all players in chances created — Argentina has scored the most goals of any team while producing the highest-quality chances and highest conversion rate of any semifinalist. Additionally, only La Roja have completed their passes at a higher rate overall, and no team has completed as many through balls as the Albiceleste. Defensively, though, Argentina has been a bit more gettable; while it has allowed the second-fewest expected goals per match and allowed shots in the box at second-lowest rate among the semifinalists, its wing-backs have been problematic, and it has forced the fewest high turnovers of any remaining team. Additionally, while the Albiceleste have been pretty strong defensively against set pieces, they’ve been the most foul-prone semifinalist. Emiliano Martínez hasn’t had a very good tournament between the sticks, ranking 13th-to-last among all qualified keepers in goals prevented per 90 minutes.
It’s hard to count out either team; both of these teams are here in the semifinals for a reason, but both have looked vulnerable at times. Saka has yet to play more than 75 minutes in any game this tournament, but if he’s able to play all 90 minutes, he could pose a real problem for Nicolás Tagliafico, whose lack of foot speed resulted directly in Egypt’s second goal that nearly sealed Argentina’s fate. The Three Lions’ ability to play the offsides trap could also stifle the Albiceleste’s through ball-reliant attack, and their relative comfort from set pieces could allow them to take advantage of Argentina’s occasional indiscipline. Both teams should score, as I don’t want to bet against Messi, but England should eventually advance, whether in regular time or extra time.
Best Bet: Both Teams to Score (90 Mins): Yes (-115)
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