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Which player will record the highest exit velocity HR in the 2026 Home Run Derby?

Which player will record the highest exit velocity HR in the 2026 Home Run Derby?

Baltimore Orioles Sports Betting Picks MLB DraftKings Network

Published:

By: Dan Johnson

The Home Run Derby has one perfect sicko market: the hardest-hit homer of the night.

The longest-homer prop is for the ball that gets lost in the Philadelphia sky. This market is for the shot that sounds so-good-it’s-wrong, right off the bat. The one that comes off low, fast, and furious enough to make the broadcast booth check the number before the camera finishes chasing it.

Here are my favorite bets for this specialty market for the 2026 Home Run Derby.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

2026 Home Run Derby highest exit velocity best bets

Best bet: Jordan Walker (+400)
Strong lean: Jac Caglianone (+500)

I want Walker here for my largest ticket. His 2026 season has turned into a hard-contact fever dream: 94.2 mph average exit velocity, 116.6 mph max EV, 37 barrels, 14.1% barrel rate, 51.5% hard-hit rate, 35.1% sweet-spot rate, and a 459-foot max homer. He has also lifted his air-ball rate to 58.4% after sitting at 52.5% last year, with a 24.8% fly-ball rate and 26.7% line-drive rate.

As far as pure swinging goes, Walker has a 79.1 mph average bat speed and an 85.7% fast-swing rate, with only Caminero ahead of him among qualified hitters in both categories. His new swing seems sneaky-fit for this event, and the distance proof already exists. On June 13, Walker hit a 454-foot homer at 116.6 mph. That is exactly the kind of ball this ticket needs.

Caglianone is the one name that makes me sweat the pick. His case is gorgeous and terrifying: 93.0 mph average EV, 116.1 mph max EV, 56.0% hard-hit rate, 14.7% barrel rate, 35.3% sweet-spot rate, 77.3 mph bat speed, 44.5% pull rate, and a 29.4% HR/fly-ball rate. His average homer distance was 418 feet entering Wednesday, tied for MLB’s longest among hitters with at least 10 homers. His 108.6 mph average homer EV ranked third in that group.

Cags has the monster story, the 466-foot career long, and the left-handed path in Philly. Walker has the better launch stability, top-end EV, bat speed, and price. In warm Philadelphia air, I’ll take Walker’s one perfect baseball. But watch out for ol’ Jac.

Dan Johnson
Dan Johnson has been an editor, writer, and analyst for DraftKings and DraftKings Network since 2024. He’s previously held editorial posts at The Paris Review, Macmillan Publishers, Bedford/St. Martin’s Press, ASSIGNMENT Magazine, and FantasySixPack. You can find his various editorial work & writing (sports-related and non-) at all of the above.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.