There are just two games of WNBA action across today’s Monday slate. Tipping off at 7:10 p.m. ET, the Los Angeles Sparks will take on the Atlanta Dream. This is the first of three matchups between these two teams this season.
Looking at the odds, the Dream enter as 8.5-point favorites and hold -355 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sparks are +280 underdogs, with the game total set at 181.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction and pick for this Sparks at Dream matchup.
Sparks at Dream Preview
The Los Angeles Sparks enter with a 10-11 record on the season. They are looking to ride the momentum of back-to-back wins, which came over the Indiana Fever and Chicago Sky. However, Los Angeles lost five of its previous six games before this. On the season overall, the Sparks are 8-13 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 15 of their 21 games played.
Kelsey Plum headlines the production for the Sparks, posting averages of 23.9 points and 6.4 assists per game on the season. However, Plum remains sidelined due to a lower left leg injury. Cameron Brink is the lone other player on the injury report and will miss tonight’s matchup due to a left ankle injury. Nneka Ogwumike will lead the charge and look to add to her averages of 16.9 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. Dearica Hamby adds 14.8 points and 7.7 rebounds, while Rae Burrell is the lone other player to average in double figures with 12.3 points per game. Ariel Atkins and Erica Wheeler also play important roles.
The Sparks are scoring 89.0 points per game as a team, which ranks sixth in the WNBA. Los Angeles also ranks ninth in offensive rating, sixth in field-goal percentage and 11th in three-point percentage. Opponents are scoring a WNBA-high 93.2 points per game against Los Angeles. It also ranks 13th in defensive rating, 14th in opponent field-goal percentage and eighth in opponent three-point percentage while allowing the second-most perimeter shots per game.
The Atlanta Dream are off to a 13-10 start to the season. After leaping out to a 12-4 start, Atlanta has dropped six of its past seven matchups to slide down the WNBA standings a bit. It had not lost consecutive games all season before this recent stretch. On the season overall, the Dream have gone 9-14 against the spread, and the game total is 12-11 to the over/under.
Allisha Gray is off to a stellar start to the season, averaging 18.7 points and 3.2 rebounds per game. Rhyne Howard is not far behind with 18.5 points, 3.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists of her own. Angel Reese contributes 15.0 points and 11.7 rebounds per game, but she is listed as questionable with a right leg injury. Brionna Jones is also questionable with a right knee issue. Jordin Canada adds 11.3 points and 7.3 assists, while Naz Hillmon and Te-Hina Paopao also play key roles.
As a team, the Dream rank eighth in the league in scoring, averaging 87.7 points per game. They also rank seventh in offensive rating, 12th in field-goal percentage and 12th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are averaging 84.4 points per game against Atlanta, the fourth-lowest mark in the WNBA. The Dream also rank fourth in defensive rating, 15th in opponent field-goal percentage and 14th in opponent three-point percentage.
Sparks at Dream Pick, Best Bet
After flashing to be one of the top teams in the WNBA at the start of the year, the Dream have looked concerning in recent games. They have lost six of the last seven games outright and failed to cover the spread in eight consecutive matchups. Atlanta has shot below 40% from the field in four of these seven games and has been held below its scoring average in four of these matchups. It is difficult to have much optimism for the Dream against any opponent right now, even if the Sparks have some evident flaws.
While my lean would be toward the Sparks keeping things competitive and within the 8.5-point spread, I am backing the game total to go over the 181.5 number as my best bet.
Los Angeles has bled points on the defensive end all season. The Sparks are allowing a league-worst 93.2 points per game and have conceded 102+ points in six games. During the early portion of the season, the Sparks were recording the worst defensive rating in WNBA history, and they still rank 13th among this year’s WNBA teams. While Atlanta has attempted to build a defensive identity, its metrics have not matched this. The Dream rank fourth in opponent points allowed and fourth in defensive rating, but last in opponent field-goal percentage and 14th in opponent three-point percentage. They conceded 102 points to the Portland Fire in the previous game and have allowed 100+ points in four of their last 12 matchups.
The Sparks can score the ball at a high rate, producing 89.0 points per game, and they play at the fastest pace in the league. Expect Los Angeles to make a clear effort to get in transition and push the tempo in an effort to create easy looks. The game total has gone over in eight of the past 12 games played by the Dream and in 15 of the Sparks’ 21 games this season. Both of these teams have revealed some recent flaws that the other can exploit, and expect this to result in plenty of points being put on the board for both sides. This will be an interesting spot to see how the Dream respond, but I am staying away and backing plenty of points to be scored in tonight’s matchup.
