There are eight superstars slated to swing for the fences at Citizens Bank Park on Monday night. Two of them will have a bit of a home-field advantage, though. Phillies sluggers Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber will both take part in the 2026 T-Mobile Home Run Derby, kicking off the MLB All-Star festivities in Philadelphia. This marks Harper’s third career Home Run Derby appearance and his first since he beat out Schwarber for the crown in 2018.
Let’s take a look at where Harper stands entering the 2026 Home Run Derby, with odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Bryce Harper Home Run Derby preview
Through 97 games this season, Harper is batting .260 with an .862 OPS and 1.9 WAR. He has already racked up 17 doubles, 20 home runs, 57 RBIs and 59 runs. He is on pace to finish 2026 with 33 home runs, which would be his most since his 2021 NL MVP campaign. According to FanGraphs’ Steamer model, Harper is projected to finish the regular season with 32 home runs, 96 RBIs and a 3.2 WAR. The 33-year-old ranks No. 6 among active players with 383 career home runs, putting him within striking distance of No. 400. He is under contract with the Phillies for another five seasons beyond this one, so there are sure to be plenty more milestones in Harper’s future, as well.
Harper’s first Derby outing came in 2013, when he finished second to Yoenis Céspedes at Citi Field. He returned to the field in 2018, emerging victorious from the single-elimination bracket format. Harper was playing at his home field in that rendition of the event, back when he was still a member of the Washington Nationals. No one has won at their home ballpark since.
In 2013, Harper hit eight home runs in round one, eight home runs in round two and eight home runs in the finals. Players had 10 outs per round, with an out being any swing that didn’t result in a homer. In 2018, Harper hit 13 home runs in the quarterfinals, 13 in the semifinals and 19 in the finals. Each round lasted four minutes, but participants could unlock an extra 30 seconds if they hit two or more home runs over 440 feet.
The format is once again different in 2026, however. Harper will get 20 swings in the first round, with no time or outs to keep track of. If he advances to the second round, he will have 15 more swings to work with. Players will get an additional 15 swings apiece in the finals, as well.
Bryce Harper pick, prediction
The line for Harper’s Round 1 Total HRs is sitting at 8.5, per DraftKings Sportsbook. He is -130 to go over and +110 to finish under that mark. He and Red Sox first baseman Willson Contreras share the lowest line in that market, while Kyle Schwarber’s line is at 10.5. Every other player in the field has a 9.5 line. Harper is tied for the third-best odds to hit the most home runs in Round 1 at +550.
Harper is tied for sixth with +900 odds to win the contest outright. He is +100 to make the semifinals and +330 to make the finals. Harper’s +1600 odds to hit the longest homer of the night rank sixth in the field, while his +1500 odds to record the highest exit velocity on a home run sit seventh.
When it comes to Harper’s Round 1 total, I trust that his experience will shine through out of the gates. A format change clearly didn’t slow Harper down in 2018, so I don’t expect it to be much of a hindrance in 2026, either. Harper hit eight home runs on 18 swings in 2013, which is going to be the closest comparison to the new format. Once again, he knows the park and will have the crowd on his side Monday night.
Home Run Derby Prediction: Bryce Harper over 8.5 Round 1 Total HRs (-130)
MLB Home Run Derby FAQ
When is the 2026 Home Run Derby?
The 2026 MLB Home Run Derby will start at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, June 13.
Where can I watch the 2026 Home Run Derby?
The 2026 MLB Home Run Derby will air live on Netflix.
Who is participating in the 2026 Home Run Derby?
Philadelphia Phillies All-Stars Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber headline the list of contestants at the 2026 Home Run Derby. Rounding out the field are White Sox first baseman Munetaka Murakami, Red Sox first baseman Willson Contreras, Yankees first baseman Ben Rice, Rays third baseman Junior Caminero, Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker and Royals outfielder Jac Caglianone.
What are Bryce Harper’s odds to win the 2026 Home Run Derby?
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Harper has +900 odds to win this year’s Home Run Derby. That is good for the sixth-best odds in the field. The over/under for his first round home runs is sitting at 8.5 home runs.
