Admit it. You love the Home Run Derby.
Maybe it’s constantly changing its rules. Maybe it’ll never be the same without Chris Berman. Maybe it’s sometimes a little too long. But still, it’s the marquee event of the MLB All-Star break and it’s a whole lot of fun.
Let’s break down the field and make a couple picks for the star-studded event on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
2026 Home Run Derby prediction, preview
While it might seem silly to have “favorites” in what is essentially an exhibition competition, Kyle Schwarber (+285) and Junior Caminero (+350) are justifiably priced at the top of the board on the DKSB. The logic here is relatively simple. Schwarber has clubbed 219 home runs since the beginning of 2022, making him one of only three players with more than 200 in that span of time. The other two? Aaron Judge (227) and Shohei Ohtani (209), both of whom are not at the All-Star Game due to injury. Then there’s Caminero, who comes into the Derby red-hot, having managed 13 long balls in his last 19 games. The 23-year-old also has the advanced statistical profile to back up his results, with his 100th percentile swing speed (79.9) signaling out to prospective bettors like a siren’s call.
That said, Caminero isn’t the only youngster in this event with a gaudy Baseball Savant page. Munetaka Murakami (+600) has only played three games since late May due to injury — so maybe there’s some rust concerns — yet the former NPB star racked up 20 home runs in the 57 contests he appeared prior to the ailment. Murakami also owns 99th percentile marks in both barrel rate (20.0%) and hard hit rate (59.2%). In a vacuum, the White Sox’s first baseman has some real contact concerns, as evidenced by a first percentile whiff rate (43.2%), but that shouldn’t matter at all in what is basically glorified batting practice.
Jordan Walker (+700) has a similar profile, as does Jac Caglianone (+800). Let’s start with the former. Walker has always been dripping with tools and potential, yet he hadn’t put it all together until 2026. Now, Walker pairs 98th percentile average exit velocity (94.2) with 100th percentile bat speed (97.2). Not too shabby. Meanwhile, Caglianone was the sixth-overall pick out of Florida in just 2024. No one ever questioned the raw power that the 23-year-old was bringing to the table, just his ability to consistently make contact. However, a 13th percentile strikeout rate (29.2%) matters not on Monday. Caglianone’s 98th percentile hard hit rate (56.0%) and 97th percentile bat speed (77.3) are far more important.
Finally, I do want to quickly bring up both Bryce Harper (+900) and Ben Rice (+900). Though the duo aren’t as flashy as some of the other names in this field, both Harper and Rice are left-handed. According to Savant’s Park Factors, Citizen’s Bank Park has been a better home run environment for LHBs than RHBs so far in 2026 — it’s also been a top 10 home run park overall. Just look at Harper’s own home/road splits this season. The veteran sports a .267 ISO in Philadelphia and his OPS (.924) is 116 points higher when playing in his home park. Something to keep in mind.
2026 Home Run Derby pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 115.5 Total Home Runs (+160)
I know. This is like going to a Harlem Globetrotters game to cheer on the Generals. That said, there’s a new format at the Derby this season that is going to limit each participant to 20 swings in the first round and 15 swings in every subsequent round (unless they keep hitting homers on their final swing). That means we’re probably looking at only 250 to 260 swings tonight. Feels like there’s value in the unknown and in the under.
Strong Lean: Jac Caglianone (+800)
While youth and an abundance of energy probably means less in a world with no timed rounds, give me the 23-year-old. Caglianone has 80 grade raw power and he’s left-handed. He’s also got the fifth-longest odds, so the payout potential is very nice.
