Helping to kick off today’s four-game WNBA slate, the New York Liberty will take on the Toronto Tempo. This is the second of three matchups between these two teams so far this season.
The Liberty produced a 97-82 win during the first matchup with the Tempo. This took place on June 3 and was part of WNBA Commissioner’s Cup play.
Looking at the odds for today’s matchup, the Liberty enter as 6.5-point favorites and hold -310 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Tempo hold +250 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 177.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Liberty at Tempo matchup.
Liberty at Tempo Preview
The New York Liberty are off to a 13-10 record in what has been a bit of a strange season. After getting off to an 11-4 start to the year, New York has lost six of its last eight games to drop down the standings a bit. It has only covered the spread in two of its last nine games. Overall this season, the Liberty are 10-13 to the spread, and the game total has gone over in 13 of 23 games.
Breanna Stewart headlines the production, posting averages of 20.3 points and 8.4 rebounds. Jonquel Jones adds 15.2 points and 9.3 rebounds per game, while Sabrina Ionescu pitches in 12.0 points, 3.9 assists and 3.9 rebounds. Marine Johannes and Leonie Fiebich also average in double digits. However, Fiebich will miss today’s matchup due to left foot soreness. Satou Sabally will also be sidelined in concussion protocol.
The Liberty are scoring 87.7 points per game, which ranks seventh in the WNBA. They also rank sixth in offensive rating, fifth in field-goal percentage and fifth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are averaging 84.1 points per game against New York, the third-best mark in the WNBA. The Liberty also rank seventh in defensive rating, sixth in opponent field-goal percentage and fifth in opponent three-point percentage.
In their first season in the WNBA, the Toronto Tempo hold a 9-13 overall record. They are looking to snap a four-game losing streak and have lost eight of their past 10 matchups. On the season overall, the Tempo are 12-10 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 14 of their 22 games played.
It is a busy injury report for the Tempo tonight. Brittney Sykes will be sidelined due to a left foot issue, Temi Fagbenle remains in concussion protocol, and Kiki Rice will miss due to an ankle injury. Sykes is the most noteworthy absence, as the Tempo will need to make up for the 20.1 points per game she is responsible for, but all three are impact players on this Toronto roster. Marina Mabrey will headline the production, posting averages of 21.2 points, 3.6 assists and 3.6 rebounds on the year. Isabelle Harrison contributes 13.9 points and 6.3 rebounds, while Laura Juskaite, Nyara Sabally, Maria Conde and Julie Allemand also play key roles.
As a team, the Tempo are scoring 89.6 points per game, which ranks fourth in the WNBA. Toronto also ranks fifth in offensive rating, seventh in field-goal percentage and second in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are averaging 92.1 points per game against the Tempo, ranking 14th in the WNBA. The Tempo also rank last in defensive rating, 13th in opponent field-goal percentage and seventh in opponent three-point percentage.
Liberty at Tempo Pick, Best Bet
Neither of these teams are trending in their desired direction on the season. Both are in the midst of second half skids and hoping this is a matchup that can help them get back on the right path.
But the defensive issues on this Tempo squad are too significant to brush over. I am backing the Liberty to get back in the win column and cover the 6.5-point spread. Toronto gave up 108 points to the Dallas Wings in the previous matchup, and it has conceded 97+ points in six of its last 11 games played. The Tempo rank dead last in defensive rating, 14th in opponent points allowed, and they have holes all across this side of the floor on the season overall.
During the first matchup between these two teams, the Liberty produced a 97-82 win. New York held a lead for 81% of the matchup and extended its lead to as many as 21. The Liberty shot 44% from beyond the three-point arc and out-rebounded the Tempo 40-32.
Plenty has gone wrong with the Liberty as of late, with the bulk of these issues self-inflicted. But facing one of the worst defenses in the league should help steer them back on the right path. Injuries have been a part of their struggles, and there is too much talent on this roster for New York to continue trending in the wrong direction.
There will be some uneven stretches, but expect the talent level of this Liberty team to be enough and for New York to gradually pull away. The absence of Brittney Sykes is notable for the Tempo, and it is difficult to see a path to Toronto scoring at the necessary rate to keep this matchup competitive. Expect the Liberty to gradually extend their lead throughout and cover the 6.5-spread in this much-needed get-right spot.
