Major League Baseball is headed into the All-Star break with another great Sunday afternoon of action, with three games just after 4:00 p.m. ET as we head into the weekend. Looking at those three contests, let’s pick some home run props to target as we get geared up for the Home Run Derby on Monday. Taking a look at the six teams on the scoreboard, a few matchups stand out as the best places to attack. My top home run props for Sunday afternoon are each lefties with good matchups for left-handed homers; in that scenario, I’m taking Bryce Eldridge, Ketel Marte and Daulton Varsho.
It should be a great afternoon to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Eldridge | Giants | Eldridge has juicy odds over +500 and has eight homers in his 53 MLB games. He has two homers over his last eight games with a 50% hard-hit rate and 22.2% barrel rate, coming into this great matchup vs. Michael Lorenzen. |
| Ketel Marte | Diamondbacks | Marte has homered off Emmett Sheehan in his seven previous ABs. He has hit 10 of his 17 homers vs. RHP and five homers in his last 16 games. The switch-hitter will hit lefty against Sheehan, who has struggled on that side of his splits. |
| Daulton Varsho | Blue Jays | Varsho takes on German Marquez, who has allowed eight homers in his eight games this season, and seven homers in his four home starts with a 7.50 ERA. Lefties have a .280 ISO against him, and Varsho is 3-for-13 against him with a home run. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive in for a deeper look at these three plays on Sunday.
Top MLB home run props today: Analysis
Bryce Eldridge to Hit a Home Run (+545)
The Giants are hosting the Rockies on Sunday afternoon and will take on Michael Lorenzen. Lorenzen is 3-9 with a 6.46 ERA on the season, but has actually been better lately. He has still served up his 14 homers in 20 games, including 10 of them to lefties like Eldridge. Lefties have a .434 wOBA, .264 ISO, and an 11.5% barrel rate against him.
While Rafael Devers (+306) to hit a home run is also a strong play, I love the value from backing the big rookie. Eldridge hit 25 dingers in the minors last year, and the 21-year-old smashed five homers in 30 games before his promotion this season. In his 53 games in the majors, he has eight homers, including this blast into the Bay at the start of the series:
Eldridge has two homers over his last eight games with a 50% hard-hit rate and 22.2% barrel rate. He has a .366 wOBA over that time and a .276 ISO. He is 1-for-1 with a double against Lorenzen in their past meetings, and I like his chances to go into the break with a bash this Sunday afternoon.
Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run (+292)
Marte leads the Diamondbacks with 17 homers this season, and he’s in a good spot on Sunday against righty Emmett Sheehan. The switch-hitting second baseman has hit 10 of his 17 homers against righties, and nine of his 17 homers on the road. He hasn’t homered yet in July, but he has five homers in his last 16 games.
His most recent homer was off Adrian Houser of the Giants on Tuesday, June 30.
Marte is 1-for-7 against Sheehan in their past meetings, but that one hit was a home run. Sheehan has struggled with lefties this year, giving up nine of his 15 homers in 16 games on that side of the splits. Sheehan has given up four homers in his last four starts with a 5.60 ERA. He gave up two runs in 6 1/3 innings on June 1 against Arizona, but the D-Backs roughed him up for four runs in 3 1/3 innings when he faced them back in late March.
With plenty of familiarity in the matchup and a nice warm day at Dodger Stadium with the wind blowing out, the setting is great for Marte to bet back on the home run hype train this Sunday.
Daulton Varsho to Hit a Home Run (+367)
Let’s finish out our home run props with a former Diamondback who is back in the NL West as the Blue Jays take on the Padres. Daulton Varsho and the Jays are in a good spot with the wind blowing out at Petco Park, but the temperatures are a little cooler than in L.A. The Padres will start German Marquez in their last game before the break, and Marquez has struggled in his first year for the Friars, going 4-2 in eight games with a 5.02 ERA. He has allowed eight homers in eight games, with seven of those long balls against him coming in his 18 innings at home.
Lefties have hit six of the eight homers against Marquez this year, hitting .267 with a .309 wOBA, .280 ISO and a 48.4% hard-hit rate. Varsho has been one of the Jays’ best lefty hitters this season, ripping seven homers in his 82 games. He hit 20 homers in just 71 games last season, so he has the ability to go yard even more often when he’s fully at his best.
He is 3-for-13 in his career against Marquez with a double and a home run. He hasn’t homered in 15 games, which is why his odds are so long this Sunday, even in a very favorable matchup.
