Closing down Sunday’s four-game WNBA slate, the Indiana Fever will visit the Las Vegas Aces.
This is the second of three matchups between these two opponents this year. The Fever produced a commanding 84-68 victory in the first game, which was the Aces’ third-lowest scoring total of the season. This took place a week ago on July 5th, but both A’ja Wilson and Caitlin Clark missed this matchup.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Aces enter as 4.5-point favorites and hold -185 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Fever hold +154 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 180.5.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Fever at Aces matchup.
Fever at Aces Preview
The Indiana Fever are off to a 13-9 start to the season, which slots them in fifth place in the WNBA. They are coming off a victory over the Phoenix Mercury on Thursday, and Indiana has won three of their past four games. On the season, the Fever have gone 11-11 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 13 of the 22 games played.
Kelsey Mitchell headlines the production on the season, averaging 22.5 points and 2.9 assists per game. Caitlin Clark is not far behind with 20.5 points and a team-high 7.9 assists. Clark has battled a back injury this season but is considered probable for tonight’s matchup. She is the lone player on the injury report. Aliyah Boston contributes 17.3 points and 8.7 rebounds, while Sophie Cunningham, Damiris Dantas, Monique Billings, Tyasha Harris, Myisha Hines-Allen, and Shatori Walker-Kimbrough also play key roles on the team.
Indiana leads the WNBA in scoring at 93.3 points per game. The Fever also rank second in offensive rating, second in pace, third in field-goal percentage, and third in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 89.7 points per game against the Fever, which ranks 12th in the league. Indiana also ranks ninth in defensive rating and ninth in opponent field-goal percentage, while allowing the fewest three-point attempts per game.
The Las Vegas Aces enter with a 17-6 record on the season, tied for the best record in the league. Tonight will mark the second half of a back-to-back after they defeated the Phoenix Mercury 106-58 last night. Las Vegas has won 13 of its past 17 games. On the season overall, the Aces have gone 12-11 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 12 of their 23 games played.
Four-time MVP A’ja Wilson headlines the production, averaging 25.8 points and 9.7 rebounds per night. Jackie Young adds 16.2 points and 6.7 assists, while Chelsea Gray contributes 12.4 points and 7.5 assists of her own. Chennedy Carter and NaLyssa Smith also average double digits, while Jewell Loyd also plays a key role.
Becky Hammon’s squad is scoring 90.6 points per game, which ranks second in the WNBA. The Aces also lead the league in offensive rating, rank first in field-goal percentage, and fourth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 86.1 points per game against Las Vegas, which ranks sixth in the league. Las Vegas also ranks fifth in defensive rating, fifth in opponent field-goal percentage, and 11th in opponent three-point percentage.
Fever at Aces Pick, Best Bet
These are two of the top teams in the WNBA and the clear two best offenses. However, this was not put on display in the first matchup, as the Aces were limited to 68 points and they shot just 21% from beyond the three-point arc. Indiana led for 76% of this matchup, although it is important to note that both A’ja Wilson and Caitlin Clark missed this game.
The outlook will be a bit different with each superstar expected to be available. My lean is toward the Fever producing the outright upset and capitalizing on the lack of rest for the Aces. Las Vegas will benefit from last night being a blowout, as they were able to give their starters some additional rest. But it is still a difficult ask to bounce back a day later, especially with the pace the Fever like to play with in mind.
These teams rank first and second in the WNBA in scoring, first and second in offensive rating, first and third in field goal percentage, and each in the top seven in pace. While the game total finished at 152 in the previous game, remaining well under the game total of 180.5, this should largely be thrown out due to both stars not being on the floor. Both Caitlin Clark and A’ja Wilson are so essential to being the foundation of the attack for their respective teams, and cause the matchup issues that lead to monstrous scoring totals.
For the Fever, Clark is the tone-setter from a pace perspective and the leading playmaker on the team. She does an excellent job getting up and down the floor at a rapid rate, and her perimeter shooting opens the floor for others in a major way. Expect this to be especially a focus given the tired legs of the Aces. For Las Vegas, there is still no clear answer for the interior production of the four-time MVP. Indiana is better equipped to slow down Wilson than most, but the Aces star commands double teams regularly, and this opens up clean looks for the entire team.
If these teams are to each score to their average, the game total would finish at 183.9 points. But the Aces scored 106 points just last night and have scored 98+ points in four of the past six games, while the Fever have scored 100+ in five of their last 11 games played. Buckle up for some offense and expect both of these teams to score at a regular rate. 180.5 is a high total by WNBA standards, but rightfully so based on the context of this matchup. Expect each side to capitalize on their matchup advantages and for this game to be played at an up-tempo pace throughout.
