Following one of the most brutal stretches we’ve seen for an MLB club this year, the New York Yankees have finally won back-to-back games for the first time since June 23 and 24. After a 12-4 drubbing of a division rival on Thursday and a 5-3 victory over the Washington Nationals last night, they’re now set to run it back in the nation’s capital as this series continues. First pitch is set for 4:05 p.m. ET.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Yankees vs. Nationals matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yankees vs. Nationals prediction, preview
It’s been a brutal stretch for the Yankees since June 1, which was the first day which saw superstar slugger Aaron Judge hit the IL. He’s still yet to return and the team is just 16-19 in his absence, a winning percentage of .457. Over this span, New York is just 22nd in runs scored with 4.23 per game and 24th in OPS at .691 on a slash line of .226/.288/.402. The bats have been incredibly cold over this sample and have been the primary reason for the club’s regression in the W/L column. Though their power potential does remain mostly intact with a .171 ISO, the plate approach has left so much to be desired with an MLB-worst 0.29 BB/K ratio fueled by a 26.4% K%, also worst in the sport.
The Yankees did turn things around some over the last couple of days, with that 12-run explosion on Thursday their first outing with more than five runs since June 17, which was also their most recent double-digit performance. The question is simply whether these two wins have been a sign that the club can regain its composure. It’s probably most likely they remain mired in a rough patch, but if nothing else, this looks like progress as Judge nears a return. The good news is that they’ll get to face a lefty opener after slashing .243/.315/.437 on the year for a .746 OPS in the split.
Plus, the pitching staff is still one of the best in baseball. The bullpen paces the MLB with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP looks very good, plus a 13.9% K-BB% doesn’t hurt either. Today’s starter is also burgeoning ace Cam Schlittler, who’s 9-5 in his 19 appearances this season. The second-year RHP has a 2.01 ERA with an 0.93 WHIP and 131 strikeouts across his 112.0 IP. He’s also delivered a 4.8% BB%, good for the 96th percentile across all qualified arms.
He does face a difficult assignment in Washington today, though. The Nationals have been building something in the capital city, and while a 48-47 record may not look like much, they’ve remained above .500 for some time now in what’s become a pretty difficult division. They also have a positive run differential on the campaign at +11, overcoming some largely unimpressive pitching to do so.
The Nats average an MLB-best 5.38 runs per game with 5.45 per outing at home. These young bats are some of the best in the sport, ranking third in OPS at .759 with a slash line of .251/.325/.435. That’s even despite a .289 BABIP that falls 15th, so realistically, their numbers could probably be even better with slightly better luck. They’re aggressive on the basepaths and rank second in wSB, but this is no small-ball club — Washington’s .184 ISO ranks second on the year behind only the Yankees’ .187 mark, with 134 homers (second most) to New York’s 139 (most in the MLB). The Nationals are also 11th in K% at 21.4%, so even while swinging for the fences, they keep strikeouts down well.
So, that leads us to their pitching. LHP PJ Poulin opens today with a 2.83 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, plus 22 strikeouts in his 35.0 IP. He’s thrown 34 games in total and worked 10 starts. He’ll be backed by RHP Miles Mikolas, who has a 5.78 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season with just 50 strikeouts in 90.1 IP. The bulk arm has been rather poor, but he does keep walks way down with a 4.9% BB%. The problem is the bullpen backing both of them, however — Washington’s unit falls 27th in ERA at 5.05 and has a 1.47 WHIP with an 8.6% K-BB%. This bullpen collapses often, to put it simply.
Yankees vs. Nationals pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Yankees as -198 road favorites on the Moneyline tonight. The Nationals are underdogs with +162 odds to win outright at home. The total sits at nine combined runs as well.
Best Bet: NY Yankees over 5.5 total runs (+105)
The Yankees now have 17 runs across their last two games and had five last night in the series opener against the Nationals. Their bats may not be fully back into form yet, but a date with this selection of Washington pitchers does provide a nice get-right spot for the Bronx Bombers. Mikolas has been flat-out bad this season and comes off outings of five, zero, six and seven earned runs in his last four appearances. He’s also allowed 20 homers this year, third most of any NL pitcher. Poulin has been pretty good himself, but he’s also on the wrong side of the splits and won’t work more than a couple of innings at most. This is a game that New York can use to keep getting right, so I like the over on this 5.5 mark today.
