Now this is an electric matchup. We have a rematch of the 2024 WNBA Finals on tap to kick off Saturday’s WNBA slate with the New York Liberty traveling to face the Minnesota Lynx. Stars on both sides, bad blood, and huge playoff implications; what more could you want?
Tipoff is set for 1 p.m. ET. The Lynx are a 5.5-point home favorite with -205 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. A Liberty upset is priced at +170, with the game total set at O/U 175.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Liberty-Lynx game.
Liberty vs. Lynx Preview
At 13-9, the New York Liberty are trailing behind the top teams in the WNBA, sitting in the fifth spot in the league playoff picture. It’s certainly not where they hoped to be. Injuries have been looming over the team all season long, and that starts with Sabrina Ionescu; New York’s All-WNBA guard has missed 12 of 22 games so far, and continues to struggle to get back into form. Newest Liberty star Satou Sabally has missed nine games herself, and key rotation players like Leonie Fiebich and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton have been sidelined for significant chunks. Goals one, two, and three for the second half of the season are to get healthy.
Luckily, the Liberty can lean on the best frontcourt in the WNBA. Jonquel Jones and Breanna Stewart are the elite two-way forces that make this team go. Here’s what those two combine to average per game: 35.7 points, 17.6 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 2.1 steals, and 2.4 blocks. That’s unbelievable production from your forwards. Stewie is making quite the case for another MVP award, while Jonquel is on her way to another All-Defense selection.
The Minnesota Lynx continue to roll along. Tied for the WNBA’s best record at 16-6, the Lynx will be welcoming ROTY shoo-in and MVP candidate Olivia Miles back to the lineup on Saturday. Miles’ downhill game is already one of the best in the league; her ability to get to the rim, generate free throws, and find open teammates is exceptional. It has been a huge boon for a team missing Napheesa Collier, and you can see the impact on her teammates. Natasha Howard has gotten a boost in efficiency since coming over from the Fever. Courtney Williams is setting new career marks in efficiency. When Miles gets going, everybody eats.
And yet, the defense for the Lynx may be the most impressive part of their season. Minnesota leads the league in defensive rating, as Kayla McBride continues to hold it down. Howard, Williams, and even Miles have done their part on that end as well. Nia Coffey’s presence as a 3-and-D forward has been huge all season long. Now that Dorka Juhász is back in the lineup, their defense can get even better. And all of this is without Collier, the 2024 DPOY.
It’s going to be an intense defensive struggle, first and foremost. The McBride/Coffey vs. Stewart/Jones frontcourt battle will be something to behold. But so much rests on Ionescu. Can she put enough offensive pressure on the best defense in the league? And will she hold up on the defensive end against Miles and Williams? If the answer to either of those questions is yes, the Liberty have to like their chances.
Liberty vs. Lynx Pick, Best Bet
I’m not too confident in the Liberty at the moment. Ionescu’s injury struggles are a huge problem, and they’re letting her work it out on the court. While that is the right move for their season-long outlook, it puts them in a tough position when playing the best of the best. With Miles back in the lineup, this should be a tidy home win for Minnesota.
