The wait is almost over as UFC 329 takes place on Saturday, July 11, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC 329 features the return of former UFC two-division Champion Conor McGregor against former Featherweight and BMF Champion Max Holloway. Two top Lightweight contenders, Benoit Saint Denis and Paddy Pimblett, are facing off in the co-main event of this card.
Check out my best bets and full breakdown below ahead of this week’s UFC 329 event.
Best Bets for UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
- Conor McGregor Moneyline (+185) vs. Max Holloway: If anyone can defy the odds once again and return after a long layoff and significant injury, it is McGregor. McGregor’s power at 170 pounds should be able to hurt Holloway, who is making his Welterweight debut.
- Benoit Saint Denis to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+130) vs. Paddy Pimblett: BSD is as good a finisher as anyone currently in the UFC, and his power will likely be the difference-maker.
- Lone’er Kavanagh To Win By Decision (+140) vs. Brandon Royval: Kavanagh is coming off a win over former champion Brandon Moreno and has all of the tools to continue his winning streak against Royval, who has struggled recently.
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 Best Bets Breakdown
Conor McGregor Moneyline (+185)
13 years after their first contest, Conor McGregor and Max Holloway will face off one more time. Although both fighters are legends and future UFC Hall of Famers, they still enter this fight with tons to prove. Holloway is 1-2 in his previous three fights and has never won a fight before at 170 pounds. On the other hand, McGregor is looking to snap his two-fight losing streak and prove that even after suffering multiple injuries with a long layoff, he can still compete with the best.
Although Holloway is two inches taller (5’11” vs. 5’9″), McGregor has a five-inch advantage in standing reach (74″ vs. 69″). Holloway averages 1.59 more significant strikes per minute (6.91 vs. 5.32) than McGregor does. But McGregor has one thing that has been a difference-maker throughout his career: unreal power with a tremendous finishing ability on the feet. He has used his power to neutralize opponents and change the course of a fight.
Throughout this fight week, we have seen a different version of McGregor. A calm, precise, and calculated version of McGregor has appeared, giving fans hope that he can win his first fight since January 2020. McGregor needs to enter this bout with confidence while being aggressive against Holloway, who always has a high output. On DraftKings Sportsbook, McGregor is the +185 underdog, while Holloway is the -225 favorite.
Yes, Holloway has been the more active fighter, having fought eight times since McGregor’s last fight. But Holloway has never felt someone’s power at 170 pounds, and I think that will be the x-factor in this contest. In McGregor’s previous two fights against Dustin Poirier, something seemed off. Now it doesn’t appear that his confidence is just for cameras, but that he actually enters this bout as a changed person and fighter.
Benoit Saint-Denis to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+130)
Benoit Saint Denis enters this contest with a 17-3 record and 17 finishes in his MMA career. Pimblett won nine consecutive fights from 2020 to 2025, but his previous streak ended in January at UFC 324. The winner of this fight could make a good case to be next in line for a title shot.
Also, even though both fighters in this contest are versatile and skilled in every area, they aren’t on the same level. Pimblett recently lost to the new Lightweight Champion, Justin Gaethje, and was knocked down twice en route to a dominant performance by Gaethje. Meanwhile, Saint Denis is on one of the best streaks at 155 pounds, having won four straight fights, each ending in a knockout or submission.
Both fighters are close on paper, but BSD has the advantage in nearly every category. BSD lands more significant strikes per minute (5.62 vs. 5.49) while maintaining higher striking accuracy (58% vs. 52%). Also on the ground, Saint Denis averages more takedowns (4.19 vs. 0.69) and has the edge in takedown accuracy (35% vs. 21%) and takedown defense (72% vs. 44%).
Pimblett is a fan favorite, but so far, his resume in the UFC Octagon doesn’t reflect the character he portrays. His best wins came against Michael Chandler and King Green, as Saint Denis has beaten Dan Hooker, Beneil Dariush, and Mauricio Ruffy. Since all 17 of Saint Denis’ wins have come by finish, I’m taking him at +130 to win by knockout or submission. If BSD pressures Pimblett, it likeley will likely frustrate him, leading to a finish.
Lone’er Kavanagh To Win By Decision (+140)
Another high-stakes fight on the UFC 329 Main Card is No. 4 Brandon Royval vs. No. 6 Lone’er Kavanagh. Former title challenger Royval is coming off back-to-back losses to UFC Flyweight Champion Joshua Van and No. 2 Manel Kape. Royval’s last victory was in October 2024 against Tatsuro Taira. Kavanagh has started his UFC career 3-1 and recently got back on track against former UFC Flyweight Champion Brandon Moreno in February.
In this contest, Kavanagh is a -218 favorite with Royval a +180 underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook. Royval lands more significant strikes per minute (5.54 vs. 4.13) while Kavanagh is more accurate (48% vs. 41%) and absorbs fewer strikes from opponents. I think Kavanagh’s fast-paced style should give him the edge in this contest. When facing fighters who dictate the pace while unloading a high volume of punches, Royval struggles. Since his last three wins have come by decision, I’m backing Kavanagh to win on the judges’ scorecards at +140.
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