Boston brings the better form into Citi Field, and also the worse pregame. The Red Sox are 43-48, have won six straight, 12 of 15, and sit 2.5 games off the AL Wild Card pace. The Mets are 40-54, though their offense finally woke up with 25 runs against Kansas City and 42 runs across five games. Boston’s edge took a hit Friday afternoon because the club stayed stuck in Chicago after multiple plane issues. The original Thursday flight was scheduled for 8:45 p.m. CT, Boston was still grounded at Midway at 2 p.m. ET, and the team expected to land near LaGuardia shortly after 4 p.m. for a 7:15 p.m. first pitch. That turns this into a rushed road routine, with limited treatment time, cage work, scouting review, and starter prep. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the New York Mets and the Boston Red Sox.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Mets vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
Sonny Gray still gives Boston the sturdier starting-pitcher case. He enters 10-1 with a 2.61 ERA, 82 strikeouts, and a 1.10 WHIP, and he has allowed three runs or fewer in 14 of 16 starts. He has reached the sixth inning in seven straight outings and 11 of 16 overall. His recent form is even better: since April 20, Gray owns a 2.08 ERA, 3.29 FIP, and 71 strikeouts over 69 1/3 innings. The hard-contact layer is good enough, with an 89.2 mph EV allowed, 37.1% hard-hit rate, .291 wOBA, and roughly .299 xwOBA. The Mets do have the right pressure points. Juan Soto is 6-for-13 off Gray, Lindor is 8-for-28, and New York can stack lefty and switch bats through Soto, Lindor, Benge, Polanco, Young, and Baty.
Nolan McLean is the reason Boston is not a simple side play. He comes in 6-5 with a 3.73 ERA, 118 strikeouts, 37 walks, 10 homers allowed, and a 3.52 FIP over 101 1/3 innings. His contact profile backs up the run prevention: 87.0 mph EV allowed, 34.5% hard-hit, 6.3% barrels, .214 xBA, .329 xSLG, .286 wOBA, .288 xwOBA, and 28.0% strikeout rate. That is legitimate starter material. Boston is also getting him after a broken travel day, which helps a six-pitch rookie with sinker, four-seamer, sweeper, curveball, cutter, and changeup shapes. The first trip through the order could favor McLean more than the market wants to admit.
Boston’s lineup has enough paths to four runs, but the missing bat changes the shape. Willson Contreras is serving a reduced five-game suspension, and that removes a .285 hitter with 20 homers and 61 RBI from the middle of the order. Anthony Seigler, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu still create a good top-three look, with Abreu carrying a useful power profile at 89.9 mph EV, 40.5% hard-hit, .329 wOBA, .331 xwOBA, and an 11.0% barrel rate. Rafaela brings the better season line at .283/.330/.438 with eight homers, while Duran’s .198 average hides 13 homers and 14 steals. Boston needs traffic and extra-base contact more than one swing without Contreras.
Red Sox vs. Mets pick, best bet
The Mets’ counter is better than their record. Soto is the biggest Gray problem with a .297/.414/.579 line and 21 homers, and Lindor’s season line looks poor beside stronger contact quality. Lindor owns a 92.2 mph EV, 50.4% hard-hit rate, .290 wOBA, and a much better xwOBA profile. A.J. Ewing has become a legitimate table-setter at .277/.356/.446 with seven homers, and Carson Benge adds 11 homers from the cleanup spot. New York loses Mark Vientos to a right-hand fracture, which costs the lineup an 11-homer right-handed bat. It still has enough left-handed pressure to make Gray work in humid Queens, especially if Boston’s travel day shows up early.
The bullpen is the separator. Boston’s relief group ranks No. 2 in the latest snapshot, with 21 2/3 innings and a 2.49 ERA over the last seven days. Chapman has a 2.28 ERA and 2.46 FIP, Whitlock has a 2.32 ERA and 2.63 FIP, Guerrero has a 2.45 ERA and 2.67 FIP, and Morán gives the lefty group a 2.95 ERA. That is where Boston’s best scoring path lives, because the Mets’ recent run environment has already included several ugly late innings. Queens also starts warm, with 82°F around first pitch, clouds through the middle innings, and thunderstorm risk around 6 p.m. and midnight. Warm air helps carry, while delay risk keeps this from becoming an easy full-game over.
The market has Boston around +125, New York -150, and the total at 7.5. The side price is tempting because Gray, recent form, and bullpen quality all lean Boston. The flight mess keeps me off Red Sox F5 and trims the moneyline confidence, especially with McLean capable of winning the first trip through the order. The best angle is Red Sox team total over 3.5 at +100, playable to -110. Boston’s path is pressure across nine innings: Seigler and Rafaela getting traffic on base, Abreu supplying the cleanest damage profile, Duran adding speed and extra-base volatility, and the lineup eventually reaching a Mets bullpen that has been one of the worst groups in baseball over the past week. If the Red Sox get this one after a six-game winning streak, a late-afternoon arrival, a missing middle-order bat, and a road matchup against a talented rookie, it would be their best win of the season so far.
Best bet: Red Sox team total over 3.5.
Projected score: Red Sox 5, Mets 4.
Best bet: Red Sox TT o3.5 runs (+100) at Mets
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