Who doesn’t love an underdog?
Betting on an underdog is the easiest way to get the most bang for your buck with a single wager, yet it’s always a somewhat risky endeavor. I mean, they’re underdogs for a reason, right? Still, there’s no sport where the underdog comes through more often than in baseball. It’s a 162-game season. Even the best teams are going to lose about 60 times a year.
With that in mind, let’s go looking for dogs this Friday night on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best MLB Underdog Bets, Picks
Royals ML (+129)
The Royals and Orioles meet up in Baltimore this weekend in a battle of cellar dwellers heading into the break. Both teams are 4-6 over their last 10 games, but the O’s dropped three straight before staving off a sweep with a narrow 3-2 win on Thursday against the Cubs. The Royals had won three straight before dropping a pair of games to finish their series in New York against the Mets. Kansas City had 21 runs in its three-game set against New York, which could be a sign that its offense is starting to come around after a slow start. The Royals will face Brandon Young, who is 7-2 on the season, but has given up 10 runs over 21 innings in his last four starts with a dangerous 1.67 WHIP. Young has struggled against lefties at times this season, which could set up well for the Royals’ lineup.
The Royals will give the ball to Luinder Avila, who has had mixed results since moving to the rotation. He gave up eight runs in just 2/3 of an inning in one start and four runs in four innings in another outing. He has been very effective in the rest of his starts, though, allowing just one earned run in five of his last seven starts. He has a 5.04 ERA over that span, but that hides how solid he has been in most of those outings. If he can give the Royals another solid start, they should be able to be right with the O’s in this road game, and they have a real shot at pulling out the upset at significant plus-money odds.
Reds ML (-103)
The Reds are slight home underdogs, even though they aren’t quite plus-money. They’ll be taking on Shota Imanaga and the Cubs in a divisional matchup. The Cubs swept a four-game series from the Reds at Wrigley earlier this season, so the Reds will be looking for some payback. They get a good offensive matchup in this one against Imanaga, who has gone just 1-4 in his last nine starts with a 6.47 ERA and 6.69 FIP. In those nine starts, he has allowed 16 homers and an 11.6% barrel rate.
The Reds would probably be favored against Imanaga if they had more certainty around what they’ll get from Hunter Greene. Greene was excellent over the last two seasons and seemed to be developing into a true ace, but he got a late start to this season after elbow surgery in March. He didn’t give up a run in 14 1/3 rehab innings, but he got lit up by the Orioles in his first MLB start, giving up eight runs on seven hits in 3 1/3 innings. He looked rusty, but if he can return to form even a little bit more on Friday, he gives the Reds a great shot to pull off the upset. It’s Great American Ball Park, so lots of runs will likely be scored one way or another, but of the two SP, I’d rather back a recovering Greene over a struggling Imanaga.
Red Sox ML (+113)
For the third of our MLB underdog picks this Friday, let’s get behind the surging Red Sox as they roll into Citi Field. The obstacle here is obvious — they’re facing Nolan McLean, who can be dominant when he’s at his best. McLean is 6-5 on the season with a 3.73 ERA and 3.52 FIP and has 36 strikeouts in 29 innings over his last five starts. He has been hittable, though, giving up 12 runs in those five starts. In his last home start, the Cubs reached him for six runs on seven hits in six innings. He has a 5.03 home ERA this year, and he has served up seven homers and a .328 wOBA while going 2-4 at Citi.
The Red Sox had an awful start to the season on just about every level, but they have found some momentum lately, going 11-2 over their last 13 games and sweeping the Yankees, Angels and White Sox during that run. One of the keys to their surge has been excellent starting pitching across the board, and Sonny Gray has been one of the best pitchers all season. The free agent acquisition has allowed three runs or fewer in 12 straight starts, going 8-0 with a 2.08 ERA over that stretch. He has allowed just two earned runs in his last three starts combined, piling up 27 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings. With how locked in Gray has been, and how the lineup has been producing much closer to expectations lately, getting the Red Sox at +113 is a great underdog play this Friday.
If you stack the three MLB underdog picks in this unintentionally alliterated parlay, you can get +870 odds if the three picks run the table. Since they do come with plenty of risk, though, it also makes sense to play them individually and as a round robin, so that if any two of the three hit, you’ll still secure some serious payouts.
