The Milwaukee Brewers remain firmly entrenched atop the NL Central, dominating the competition en route to what’ll very likely be a legitimate postseason run. In the same division, arguably the toughest in baseball, the Pittsburgh Pirates are fighting to remain around the .500 mark despite the best season from the franchise in years. These sides start a three-game weekend series on Friday with first pitch set for 6:40 p.m. ET.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Brewers vs. Pirates matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brewers vs. Cardinals prediction, preview
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brew Crew continue to look like one of the best teams in the MLB, coming off four wins in five games against the Cardinals. They’re now 59-34 with a +137 run differential that still ranks second in the MLB. The Brewers’ .736 OPS has now ticked up to eighth among all clubs with an overall slash line of .255/.337/.398. They may lack significant power with a .143 ISO that ranks 27th across the sport and just 86 home runs, also third fewest. However, that hasn’t stopped them yet as they rely on small-ball tactics, speed on the basepaths, and some of the best plate discipline of any lineup. They have the third-best BB% at 10.5% paired with a 20.9% that also falls in the top 10, adding up for an 0.50 BB/K ratio that’s third best in the sport. Looking at this matchup in particular, the Brewers will be glad to face a right-handed pitcher after slashing .261/.342/.412 for a .754 OPS in the split this year.
RHP Brandon Sproat starts for Milwaukee with a 3-4 record in his 17 appearances (15 starts). The second-year hurler has a 5.13 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP and plus-strikeout stuff with 84 punchouts in 79.0 IP. The Brewers’ bullpen is among the sport’s best, moving to fourth in ERA at 3.42 with a 1.26 WHIP and a 13.8% K-BB%.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates dropped each of their last two games to the struggling Braves, meaning they’re now just 47-47 on the campaign and fourth in the NL Central. However, a +33 run differential is still quite solid and the squad ranks third in runs per game with 5.23 a night. The success has come largely thanks to the bats, as Pittsburgh slots in at second in OPS with a .763 mark on a slash line of .262/.340/.423. While a .161 ISO comes in at 14th, that’s still high-quality production and comes with 120 home runs on the year, eighth most of any club, too. Could a 23.8% K% that slots in as the fifth highest in the MLB be better? Certainly, but the Pirates also balance it out for the most part with a nice 9.6% BB% on the other end. Looking at the splits for tonight, they slash .269/.353/.438 for an extremely impressive .791 OPS against right-handers like they’ll face here.
Second-year RHP Braxton Ashcraft gets the start after going 9-3 in his 18 games. He carries a 3.42 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP into this game, also striking out 122 hitters across 108.1 IP. Now, he’ll also be on the first All-Star team of his young career after being named a replacement. Looking at Pittsburgh’s bullpen though, things could be better with a 4.53 ERA that ranks 23rd, plus a high 1.40 WHIP and a 12.6% K-BB%.
Brewers vs. Pirates pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Pirates as -126 home favorites on the Moneyline tonight. The Brewers are underdogs with +104 odds to win outright at home. The total sits at eight combined runs.
Best Bet: Over eight combined runs (-111)
The top pick in this game is easily the over on the run total, in my opinion. It’s set at just eight, which feels a little bit low for a matchup between two of the best offenses in the MLB. That feels even more true given that both starters are right-handers, with the Pirates second in OPS against such arms and the Brewers fifth in the same stat. Both also have elevated ISO marks in the split, with Pittsburgh at .170 and Milwaukee at .151. Hitting Ashcraft may not be the easiest task for the Brew Crew, especially given that he’s allowed just one earned run in three of his last four starts and has generally been very locked in. The bullpen backing him is a little suspect though, and the inverse scenario is true on the other side with Sproat’s elevated ERA and a high 11.0% BB%. I expect scoring here, plain and simple.
