The AL West is absolutely up for grabs without a clear leader. At the moment, the Texas Rangers are the top dog, but the Houston Astros are lurking after playing some quality baseball over the last month and a half. These two rivals meet tonight in another leg of the Silver Boot Series with first pitch in Arlington set for 8:05 p.m. ET.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Astros vs. Rangers matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Astros vs. Rangers prediction, preview
With the way the AL West has been this season, anything could happen tonight. Texas maintains a very slim lead on the division at 47-46, but is up just half a game on Seattle and 2.0 games on Houston at 46-49. It seemed that the Astros may have been doomed at one point this year, but they’ve since spent much of the last two months clawing their way back into the postseason picture (admittedly in an atypically weak AL). Since June 1, they’re 19-15 for a .559 winning percentage — identical to that of the Rangers over the same span.
Here’s where things get interesting. The visiting Astros are pretty clearly the better offensive team with 4.55 runs per game (14th) and a .725 OPS (15th). In terms of scoring output, they do have an advantage, and standout shortstop Jeremy Pena could return tonight or at some point this series after dealing with a calf strain. That’d be a boon for this lineup, which slashes .241/.315/.410 on the year and brings the fifth-best ISO at .169, plus 126 home runs, third most of any club.
However, there may not really be a truly massive gap between these batting orders. The Rangers’ OPS of .714 is good for 18th and isn’t far behind Houston’s, slashing .244/.319/.395. The big difference is in the run production, with Texas scoring just 4.12 a game. One of the reasons why? It’s a lack of comparable power, since while the ISO is respectable at .151 (19th), the 103 homers slot in at 21st among all MLB clubs. Tonight’s teams have nearly identical BB/K ratios with a minute edge to the ‘Stros at 0.40 compared to 0.39 for the Rangers.
As for the starting pitchers, there’s a talent edge that goes in the Astros’ direction as well. RHP Hunter Brown returned from injury last month and is 1-0 in his six starts this season, amassing a 3.38 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP and 35 punchouts in just 29.1 IP. However, he did allow six earned runs in his last start and hasn’t quite looked like himself since coming back. He faces RHP Cal Quantrill, who is 3-1 in 18 games (three starts) with a 3.35 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and 27 strikeouts across his 40.1 IP. His workload has increased recently, getting 2.0 innings in his first start, 4.0 in his next, and 5.0 in his most recent.
Astros vs. Rangers pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Astros as -143 road favorites on the Moneyline tonight. The Rangers are underdogs with +119 odds to win outright at home. The total sits at 8.5 combined runs as well.
Best Bet: Hunter Brown 17.5 outs recorded (+100)
Hunter Brown is one of the MLB’s brightest arms when at his best, but things haven’t been fantastic since he got back into the rotation. He got his first start post-injury back on June 16 and has thrown four games (including that one) since then. He went 5.2, 3.0, 6.0 and 4.0 innings in those four. Over this span, he allowed just one earned run in the first two outings, two in the third game, and six in his most recent appearance. Notably walks were a little bit of an issue with at least two in all of those starts, totaling 11 combined free passes. What’s the lesson here? Essentially, it’s that Brown hasn’t been at his peak. He’s stayed under tonight’s line of 17.5 outs recorded in all but one of those three games. With his somewhat shaky performance and the Astros’ bullpen surging to second in ERA at 2.56 since June 1, it wouldn’t be shocking to see a short leash for the standout starter — not even necessarily due to his play, but perhaps to let him continue working back into form and keep him fully healthy heading into the break
