In the WNBA, one era is coming to an end, and another is beginning. The Connecticut Sun have long been a staple of the league, relocating to the state in 2003 and immediately seeing some success, but they’ll soon be defunct, relocating to Houston to become the Comets. Meanwhile, the Golden State Valkyries aren’t yet a staple, but they saw immense success in their first season in the league in 2025 and look like contenders so far in 2026.
Tonight, the teams will face off for the second time this season in the fourth game of Golden State’s East Coast road trip. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET.
The Valkyries could have a completely healthy roster, though All-Star Gabby Williams (back) is questionable. Connecticut has more significant injury issues: Brittney Griner (quad), Aneesah Morrow (conditioning), and Saniya Rivers (ankle) are all out.
Golden State is a 5.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-250 Moneyline), with the total set at 155.5 points. The Sun are +205 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down today’s opening game and offer a prediction.
Valkyries at Sun Best Bet
Golden State Valkyries -5.5 (-118): The Valkyries are one of the best interior-defending teams in basketball, and Connecticut relies heavily on its interior play. Additionally, Golden State is the most three-point-dependent team, and the Sun have had extremely porous perimeter defense. This line should be far more lopsided.
Valkyries at Sun prediction, pick
The Valkyries have been extremely hot, winning each of their last six games and 10 of their last 12, and each of their last five losses have either come against the Las Vegas Aces or the Minnesota Lynx. Golden State has been especially sharp defensively, ranking second in defensive rating, and paired with a league-average offense, that’s been good enough for the third-best record and the second-best net rating in the league. Many of the Valkyries’ role players have built on their solid first seasons with the team, as Kaitlyn Chen has become a valuable rotational piece and Janelle Salaün has become a Sixth Player of the Year contender. Meanwhile, Connecticut has won three of its last five games, including a win over the Lynx, but it’s still floundering overall at a league-worst 5-17, and it has both a bottom-five offense and defense. Both Rivers and Morrow have made a net-negative impact on the team when they’ve been on the court, so the Sun could be slightly better today without them, but even at her advanced age, Griner is a big loss.
To be fair, Connecticut’s paint play has been pretty good, and that’s an area in which Golden State could struggle. The Sun have attempted the fourth-most layups and the ninth-most non-restricted paint shots, while the Valkyries attempt the fewest layups and the eighth-most floaters. The issue is that Connecticut has been pretty inefficient from both zones, and Golden State has allowed both the fewest layup attempts and limited opponents to the lowest percentage on such shots. The Sun have had roughly a league-average defense from both zones, but missing Morrow and Rivers, two of the top four players on the team by defensive win shares, could hurt. Overall, Connecticut should still have a slight advantage in interior play, especially if Williams (the Valkyries’ leader in close-range attempts) ends up sitting, but Golden State’s stifling defense should allow it to take away the Sun’s Plan A.
Neither team has been great at cleaning the glass, as they rank eighth and 10th, respectively, in total rebounding percentage, but I’d give the slight advantage to the Valkyries. Olivia Nelson-Ododa should be able to keep Connecticut afloat, but Morrow, who leads the league in both total and defensive rebounding percentage, will be a big loss, as will Griner, one of the league’s tallest players. The transition game should be about even; the Sun have been better at taking advantage of their forced turnovers, but no team has given the ball away as few times as Golden State. Additionally, Connecticut will need to stay disciplined, especially given its depleted forward depth; it commits the second-most fouls, and it’s also been the worst free-throw shooting team in basketball.
Three-point shooting separates these teams. Much like the NBA’s Golden State Warriors, with whom they share the Chase Center, the Valkyries attempt 2.8 more threes than any other team in the league, and they’ve connected at the sixth-best rate. Five different players attempt at least three triples per game, and Salaün, Williams, and Veronica Burton all connect at at least a 34% clip. Golden State has also been sharp defensively on the perimeter, giving up the third-fewest deep tries per game, though opponents have shot the seventh-best percentage. The Sun, on the other hand, have been both the least perimeter-reliant and least accurate team in the league, and only two of their six players attempting at least two threes per night have made even 30% of them. To make matters worse, Connecticut has also allowed opponents to convert on their triples at the third-highest rate.
The Sun’s win over Minnesota was confidence-inspiring but also somewhat of a fluke; they posted 50-47 shooting splits, and the Lynx both shot poorly and were without All-Star starter Olivia Miles (not to mention perennial MVP candidate Napheesa Collier, who has yet to make her season debut). Besides that anomalous performance, there’s no reason to think Connecticut isn’t the worst team in the league, and its overall inability to contain opposing shooters will allow the Valkyries to operate their preferred game plan. Barring Williams’ absence and simultaneous off-nights from Salaün and Burton, this one should be a comfortable win for the visitors. These teams’ first matchup was decided by 27 despite Salaün’s shooting one-for-nine from deep.
